Welcome to Pashmina's knowledge library. Selected documents are gathered here concerning future trends, technologies, scenarios, policies and databases on a set of topics from societal and demographic issues up to governance, including economy, transport, energy, environment. Use the right menu to browse presently available materials.

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WP1 Global meta-analysis will produce comprehensive qualitative scenarios for Europe by scanning the range of development options up to 2030 and 2050, harmonising and integrating quantitative results from many previous future-studies and developing a new generation of long term metamodels. The metamodels will address the main long-term patterns in the evolutions of key economic, social, technological and environmental indicators of the possible future states of the system at 2050, including the impact of different paradigm shifts that may result for instance by reaching the carrying capacity of scarce resources (e.g. oil-peak, water scarcity on Southern Europe, public expenses on the pension system…), the sudden emergence of new technologies (e.g. biotechnologies, nuclear fusion or competitive solar energy,  computers exceeding human neuronal capacity…), social or institutional conflicts (e.g. wars and terrorism…), or environmental risks (e.g. linked to Global Warming…) among many others.

Visions of alternative futures (exploratory scenarios) will be first drafted based on a qualitative analysis of different pathways of development dependent on key drivers and paradigm shifts. The perspective of this scenario building exercise will be the year 2050. A community of experts of different disciplines will be involved in a Delphi survey and a number of scenario workshops. Special attention will be given to possible paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus and the land-use and territorial functions within the next decades in Europe. The trade-off between adaptation and mitigation policies over the long term will be also addressed in this qualitative analysis too. The qualitative scenario building exercise will reveal paradigm shifts that require extending the set of indicators and modeling tools for improving our understanding of the impact of economic activities. The final outcome will take therefore the form of educated (subjective) guesses from the community of experts involved in the Delphi exercise, concerning the values of a number of welfare indicators, time use patterns and other structural indicators associated to the different paradigm shifts and territorial dynamics.

Sub-task 1.1.1. Visions of alternative futures is focussed on investigating futures that will cover both Europe as a whole as well as a territorial segmentation. As starting point for a territorial typology of Europe, ESPON types will be considered.

Investigation on future scenarios being proposed during 1950’s and 1960’s concerning the world and Europe beyond 2000.

Investigation of scenarios being proposed by regional, National, European, and World level having the 2050 time horizon.

Development of a knowledge-based web system with all studies identified

Development of a database with basic indicators forecasted on the different scenario-based studies.

Explicit definition of policies that may influence spontaneous trends

Definition of shifts being identified, and their potential impact by type of region in Europe (e.g. more or less developed, central or peripheral, continental or island, more or less urbanized or rural…).

 

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