Air Market Outlook 2009-2028 (Boeing report)

Boeing, 2009.

The Boeing Current Market Outlook describes long-term forecast for air transport. Each year, this starts with the latest economic and market conditions, then projects ahead 20 years to forecast how airlines and markets will adjust to these volatile issues.

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European Aeronautics: A Vision for 2020 Report of the Group of Personalities.

Edited by EC 2001

In forming the Group of Personalities, I gave them a deceptively simple task: to produce, in the context of implementing the European Research Area, a vision for aeronautics in the year 2020. This is not a distant deadline but a sensible reflection of the lead times in the research, development and manufacturing of many of the industry's products and services. It seemed to me that only such a unique grouping could identify a formula for transforming the sector from a follower into a global leader over this period.

 
Transport Situation in Belgium 2005. Traffic Trends.

Passenger traffic in general: as car ownership remains among the highest in the world, congestion - still mild by international comparison- is getting worse around the cities; however, due to attempts at a more sustainable mobility, all modes of public transport are growing steadily; the number of air passenger is growing fast again after a previous dip.

 
Air Transport in the Future: 2006 to 2030

Canadian Air Transport Security Authority. May 2006.

Exponential growth in air traffic, passenger and baggage volumes and the  ensuing increase in airport congestion will pose an inevitable obligation for wholesale transformation in air transport systems throughout Canada and the world. This will entail everything from major airport expansions and better air traffic management to use of smaller “satellite” airports and heightened passenger throughput in every airport, large and small; from expanded management systems and communications networks that enable more decentralized decision-making to the dissolution of traditional “hub and spoke”
air systems in favour of tailor-made, on-demand, more flexible “free routing” and “free flight operations.”

 
Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2007 and inventory report 2009

European Environment Agency, 2009

The EC GHG inventory comprises the direct sum of the national inventories compiled by the EC Member States making up the EU-15 and the EU-27. Energy data from Eurostat are used for the reference approach for CO2 emissions from fossil fuels developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The main institutions involved in the compilation of the EC GHG inventory are the Member States, the European Commission Directorate-General for the Environment (DG ENV), the European Environment Agency (EEA) and its European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC), Eurostat, and the Joint Research Centre (JRC).

 
Aviation Economic Benefits

IATA, 2007

Air Transport can play a key role in economic development and in supporting long-term economic growth. It facilitates a country’s integration into the global economy, providing direct benefits for users and wider economic benefits through its positive impact on productivity and economic performance. Global economic growth is a key driver of growth in air traffic demand. However, while air traffic demand has increased as economies have grown, air transportation itself can be a key cause and facilitator of economic growth. Not only is the aviation industry a major industry in its own right, employing large numbers of highly skilled workers, but more importantly it is an essential input into the rapidly growing global economy. Greater connections to the global air transport network can boost the productivity and growth of economies by providing better access to markets, enhancing links within and between businesses and providing greater access to resources and to international capital markets.

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Better connected transport will drive greener growth

OECD, 2012

Key findings of the 2012 Transport Outlook include: 

Mobility will grow strongly, particularly strong outside the OECD area:  
  • Global passenger transport volumes could be 2 to 2.5 times as large in 2050 as they are now. Outside the OECD, passenger volumes could rise by a factor of 2.5 to 3.5; in the OECD growth could be around 30%. 
  • Global freight transport volumes in 2050 could be 2 to 4 times as large as they are today. Within the OECD, freight volumes could double; outside the OECD they could be more than five times as large. 

CO2-emission will grow less than mobility due to carbon-saving technologies: 

  • CO2-emissions from transport could grow by a factor of 1.5 to 2.5 between 2010 and 2050.
  • In advanced economies, emissions from passenger transport can be stabilised thanks to improved technology. Freight transport emissions will still rise, however, unless freight transport grows only half as fast as GDP.
  • In emerging economies and developing countries, mobility growth is expected to be larger and emissions will grow strongly. This assumes some new technology deployment, with more efficient standard vehicles and hybrids, but not many alternative-fuel vehicles.

Mobility policy can slow down emission growth but a policy commitment is needed:

  • Passenger mobility policies could reduce emission growth outside the OECD by anywhere from a quarter to one-third by 2050.Slowing-down emissions growth requires strong, enduring policy commitment. A range of measures is needed for balanced mobility, including, but not limited to: integrating public transport, to make it more seamless and more appealing to users; limiting network capacity for cars, to achieve more efficient network use; and not providing free parking.


Emission growth means that energy technology is key:

  • In 2011, it was estimated that car fuel economy would need to double, at the very least, to stabilize emissions - from about 8 litres/100 km in 2008 to just under 4 litres/100 km in 2050.
  • Internal-combustion engines can be made much more efficient, and downsizing cars contributes strongly to reducing energy intensity. The immediate adoption of increasingly stringent fuel-economy regulations will promote this transition.
  • In the longer run, policy should be used to stimulate alternative energy sources. Diversity in transport energy is preferred to replacing fossil fuels with another dominant source.  Electric vehicles are a good technological fit where there are short but frequent trips, including taxi markets and delivery of goods in urban environments.

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Challenge 2050: The Rail Sector Vision

Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies (CER), European Infrastructure Managers (EIM) and International Union of Railways (UIC), February 2013

In collaboration with a significant number of stakeholder groups, on 26 February 2013 the European rail sector launched its pan-sector long term vision for rail. Entitled Challenge 2050, this is the European rail sector’s shared perception of where the rail system could be by 2050. Challenge 2050 sets out to orient and guide the railway sector, as well as policy makers and other stakeholders, to enable the innovation and investment on which sustainable mobility in Europe depends. The document takes account of the European Commission’s 2011 White Paper on Transport but also identifies a significant set of business challenges and makes a commitment to addressing them. It takes cognisance of the Shift²Rail initiative and it is anticipated that this document will be a useful focus for the development of ideas for future innovation through the EU Framework Programme “Horizon 2020” either as direct projects or via ERRAC and its RailRoute 2050 and the FOSTERRAIL project. It is intended to encourage delivery of a business-led vision for the sector as a whole, describe how rail will meet the challenges of the modern rail era and to describe the role rail should play in the development of Europe as a global region.

 Download the Challenge 2050, The Rail Sector Vision
 Download the  Challenge 2050's Supporting Paper

 
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide an authoritative international statement of scientific understanding of climate change. The IPCC’s periodic assessments of the causes, impacts and possible response strategies to climate change are the most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available on the subject, and form the standard reference for all concerned with climate change in academia, government and industry worldwide. Through three working groups, many hundreds of international experts assess climate change in this Fourth Assessment Report.

Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of the impacts of climate change, the vulnerability of natural and human environments, and the potential for response through adaptation. The report evaluates evidence that recent observed changes in climate have already affected a variety of physical and biological systems and concludes that these effects can be attributed to global warming; makes a detailed assessment of the impacts of future climate change and sea-level rise on ecosystems, water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, coastal and low-lying regions and industry and settlements; provides a complete new assessment of the impacts of climate change on major regions of the world (Africa,Asia, Australia/New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North America, polar regions and small islands); considers responses through adaptation; explores the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation; evaluates the key vulnerabilities to climate change, and assesses aggregate damage levels and the role of multiple stresses.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

 
Concentration and the formation of multi-port gateway regions in the European container port system: an update

Theo Notteboom
Institute of Transport and Maritime Management Antwerp,University of Antwerp, 2010.

The European container port system features a unique blend of different port types and sizes combined with a vast economic hinterland. This paper provides an update of the detailed container traffic analysis developed by Notteboom (1997) by extending it to the period 1985-2008 and to 78 container ports. The paper also aims at identifying key trends and issues underlying recent developments in the European container port system. These trends include the formation of multi-port gateway regions, changes in the hinterland orientation of ports and port regionalization processes. While the local hinterland remains the backbone of ports’ traffic positions, a growing demand for routing flexibility fuels competition for distant hinterlands between multi-port gateway regions. The prevailing assumption that containerisation would lead to further port concentration is not a confirmed fact in Europe: the European port system and most of its multi-port gateway regions witness a gradual cargo deconcentration process. Still, the container handling market remains far more concentrated than other cargo handling segments in the European port system, as there are strong market-related factors supporting a relatively high cargo concentration level in the container sector.

 
Démarche prospective transports 2050.

Ministère de l'Équipement, du Tourisme et de la Mer. France 2006.

La démarche prospective Transports 2050 a été initiée et conduite par le Conseil Général des Ponts et Chaussées en vue d’engager un débat sur le devenir à long terme du système des transports. Elle est destinée à favoriser l’émergence d’une culture du long terme, partagée avec les services du ministère des Transports et ses partenaires, et à construire des références communes et des questionnements à soumettre aux décideurs publics.

 
Democracy Beyond the Nation State? Transnational Actors and Global Governance

Christer Jönsson
Lund University, 2008

The rationale of global governance arrangements, and their principal source of legitimization, has traditionally been their capacity to address joint problems and generate benefits for states and societies. Yet, in recent years, international institutions institutions and other public arrangements have increasingly been challenged on normative grounds, and found to suffer from democratic deficits (Held and Koenig- Archibugi 2005). Issues that previously were the domain of democratic decisionmaking at the national level have been shifted to the international level, but the means of decision-making at this level to a large extent remain the exclusive preserve of state officials and international bureaucrats, with limited opportunities for participation by civil society actors.

 
Economic cycles and their synchronization: Spectral analysis of macroeconomic series from Italy, The Netherlands, and the UK

Lisa Sella, Gianna Vivaldo, Michael Ghil and Andreas Groth, Eurostat, 2012

The present work applies several advanced spectral methods ((Ghil, et al., 2002)) to the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations in Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. These methods provide valuable time-and-frequency-domain tools that complement traditional time-domain analysis, and are thus fairly well known by now in the geosciences and life sciences, but not yet widespread in quantitative economics. In particular, they enable the identification and characterization of nonlinear trends and dominant cycles – including seasonal and multiannual components – that characterize the behavior of each time series. These tools are therewith well adapted to the analysis of short and noisy data, like the macroeconomic time series analyzed herein.

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Eurocontrol Long-Term Forecast. Flight Movements 2008-2030

This report presents the EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast of IFR traffic in Europe to 2030. This forecast focuses on the developments between 2015 and 2030; the traffic between 2008 and 2014 is discussed in the Medium-Term Forecast published in February 2008. The forecast has been prepared as part of the Challenges of Growth 2008 project. This forecast replaces the Long-Term Forecast issued in December 2006. The EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast will next be reviewed in 2010. The forecast uses four scenarios to capture the possible futures for the aviation industry. Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to consider all four scenarios as a means to manage risk. There are also a number of other important risks which the forecast has not included. In particular, the possibility of changes to the routing of traffic, major external events and delays in projects for network improvements.

 
Euronews - Futuris Program

Euronews

Futuris is a science & technology program from Euronews, which highlights future innovations and trends. The Euronews tv station is a 24 hour news channel which is co-owned by major national broadcasters from a total of around 20 European countries. 

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European Social Models: the challenge of an ageing population

Economic and Financial Affairs, European Comission, 2006

While the European Social Model is a topical subject, in fact there does not appear to be any single model. Instead there are a wide variety of models in the Member States, reflecting different histories, circumstances and political choices that have shaped social welfare provision over the course of time. However, they are faced with new challenges and must adapt to new circumstances. One such challenge today is an ageing population, and DG ECFIN analysts are studying how Europe can respond to this demographic change.

European Social Models: the challenge of an ageing population

 
Feuille de route sur les réseaux et systèmes électriques intelligents intégrant les énergies renouvelables

L’Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie (ADEME), 2009

Dans le cas des systèmes et réseaux électriques intelligents intégrant les énergies renouvelables, le groupe d’experts s’est accordé sur l’existence de 3 paramètres clés (« drivers ») qui, sur le long terme, joueront un rôle déterminant sur la forme et la nature des réseaux et des systèmes électriques intelligents : l’offre de produits et de services associés à l’intelligence des réseaux ; le degré et la forme de décentralisation du système et des réseaux électriques; les choix de régulation, les modèles d’affaire et les jeux d’acteurs autour des réseaux et systèmes électriques intelligents.

 
Flying by nature, Global Market Forecast 2007 - 2026 (Airbus report)

Airbus,2007.

Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast provides an industry outlook for the 2007-2026 period. The document evaluates how air transport will meet this rising demand – detailing such factors as fleet growth, aircraft size, emerging markets, innovation and the reduction of its environmental impact.

 
Foresight for Transport; A Foresight Exercise to Help Forward Thinking in Transport and Sectoral Integration

ICCR and others. Funded by EC, 2004

The FORESIGHT for TRANSPORT project was launched in 2001 under the ‘Competitive and Sustainable Growth Programme’ (1998-2000) of the European Community with the main objective to organise and run a strategic dialogue in the form of a foresight exercise on the influence of non-transport factors and policy on mobility and transport. The implementation of the project entailed the organisation of thematic expert panel consultations on the topics of enlargement, environment and energy, information and communication technologies, multilevel governance and time dynamics, a Delphi survey involving 165 experts around Europe as well as the establishment of a meta-database system with information on indicators that can be used to monitor developments in fields of relevance for transport and mobility.

 
Freight Transport Intensity of Production and Consumption.

Steer Davies Gleave. August 2003.

The European Union has decided a sustainable development strategy that includes as an important objective the ‘decoupling’ of transport growth from economic growth. This reflects grave concerns about the problems that would inevitably be associated with ever-increasing
transport.

 
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