San Francisco livinglab PDF Print
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Living Labs Global Award 2011

San Francisco is seeking international solutions that make best use of our newly opened infrastructures and data and combines these with other technical and service innovations to deliver our Next Generation of Government, to create better public services with decreasing budgets, involving more stakeholders and citizens in the process. The City launched its Open Government initiative over a year ago. One of the first projects, DataSF is a Web 2.0 clearinghouse for sharing data with the public. Anyone can visit the website; and once there, they will find links to raw, structured and machine readable datasets created and maintained by the City and County of San Francisco. Additionally, visitors to the website can comment, rate, vote and request new datasets and applications, mash-ups or wikis made with the data

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Global Report 2009 Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility PDF Print
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Center for Systemic Peace. Center for Global Policy, 2009.

This report provides macro-comparative evaluations of contemporary conditions, qualities, and trends over time in the three dimensions of societal-systems analysis at the global level. These performance evaluations are intended to better inform our audience of the changing circumstances of the global system in the emerging era of globalization and to gauge and monitor system resilience in its constituent units. In so doing, we hope to provide a more accurate basis for considering the system’s imperatives and future prospects.

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Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2008 PDF Print
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Center for Systemic Peace, 2010

The Polity IV Project continues the Polity research tradition of coding the authority characteristics of states in the world system for purposes of comparative, quantitative analysis. The original Polity conceptual scheme was formulated, and the original Polity I data collected, under the direction of Ted Robert Gurr; the Polity scheme was informed by foundational, collaborative work with Harry Eckstein, Patterns of Authority: A Structural Basis for Political Inquiry (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1975). The Polity project has proven its value to researchers over the years, becoming the most widely used data resource for studying regime change and the effects of regime authority. The Polity IV Project carries data collection and analysis through 2008 and is under the direction of Monty G. Marshall at the Center for Systemic Peace and George Mason University.

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Value for citizens. A vision of public governance in 2020 PDF Print
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European Commission, 2009.

Th e need for open, conscious and empowered governance, to make the best use of all the resources and skills society has to offer in the interest of producing public value, is already widely recognised. Looking ahead to 2020, we need to ensure that ICT deployment will reach its full potential in optimising the way societies are governed and operate, and measuring this through increases in both personal and public value.

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Democracy Beyond the Nation State? Transnational Actors and Global Governance PDF Print
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Christer Jönsson
Lund University, 2008

The rationale of global governance arrangements, and their principal source of legitimization, has traditionally been their capacity to address joint problems and generate benefits for states and societies. Yet, in recent years, international institutions institutions and other public arrangements have increasingly been challenged on normative grounds, and found to suffer from democratic deficits (Held and Koenig- Archibugi 2005). Issues that previously were the domain of democratic decisionmaking at the national level have been shifted to the international level, but the means of decision-making at this level to a large extent remain the exclusive preserve of state officials and international bureaucrats, with limited opportunities for participation by civil society actors.

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Governance Democracy and Development in the Least Developed Countries for the Future PDF Print
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United Nations Development Programme
UN Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries,
Landlocked Developing Countries and the Small Island Developing States, 2006

Governance for the Future: Democracy and Development in the LDCs is the first United Nations Report to focus specifically on the challenges of governance faced by the 50 poorest nations in the world, collectively known as Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Jointly prepared by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and the Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS), this publication emphasizes that to achieve sustainable development, LDCs must build transparent, accountable and effective democratic governance systems. Building a strong relationship between the state and its citizens is key to successful development and to achieving the Millennium Development Goals by 2015.

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Better Governance: An outlook on a transparent organisational model PDF Print
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Ministry of Flanders, 2001

Optimising the workings of its administration has become the top priority of the administrative policy of the Flemish Government. A special meeting dedicated exclusively to this subject was held in Louvain on Fevruary 2000.

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Beyond the e-government hype PDF Print
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Greg Parston, 2010
Accenture Institute for Health & Public Service Value

The rush by government agencies worldwide to embrace the associated technologies collectively known as Web 2.0 has opened up a number of dazzling new ways citizens can participate in the public sector. Prodded by this private-sector groundswell and by the successful use of these technologies in election campaigns, local, regional and national governments are now focusing on Web 2.0 as they develop more accessible services and an array of participatory public platforms

Försäkringskassan, the Swedish government’s social insurer, provides financial protection to citizens in the forms of housing assistance, family aid, pensions, and sickness and disability benefits. Taking advantage of new online connectivity options, the agency launched a new service strategy to increase customer satisfaction and reduce costs by delivering service that better reflects the evolving needs of its customers. To achieve this, Försäkringskassan conducted extensive segmentation analyses, defining 17 discrete customer clusters based on citizens’ life events and the complexity of their needs. The agency then used information such as the service channels and preferences each segment favored to develop detailed customer insights. These insights enabled public managers to align each customer segment with the three primary contact channels—self-service, customer service centers or personal case workers.

The new approach is intended to decrease paper-based interactions, minimizing the use of complex forms, and eliminate unnecessary one-on-one meetings by moving more customer service cases to online self-service channels. Today, the organization delivers better outcomes, enjoys increased citizen satisfaction levels and uses resources more effectively, providing people with flexible, personalized customer service.

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Global trends 2025: a transformed world PDF Print

By National Intelligence Council, 2008

This study, prepared by the US National Intelligence Council, presents four scenarios for global economic and political futures. The study identifies trends that are seen as relatively certain, e.g.:

  • A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and other countries — the role and authority of 'the west' will decline
  • The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant
  • Economic and population growth will put pressure on water, energy and natural resources
  • The potential for conflict will increase owing to rapid changes in parts of the greater Middle Eastand the spread of lethal capabilities.
  • The study also identifies key uncertainties, which include the following:
  • The extent of global transition away from oil and natural gas by 2025
  • The severity of local impacts of climate change
  • Advances in democracy in Russia and China
  • Reduction in Middle East instability
  • Europe and Japan's ability to address social and economic challenges from ageing
  • Whether global powers can adapt international institutions to the new geopolitical landscape

A World Without the West

In this fictionalized account, the new powers supplant the West as leaders on the world stage.  This is not inevitable nor the only possible outcome of the rise of new states.  Historically the rise of new powers—such as Japan and Germany in the late 19th and early 20th centuries—presented stiff challenges to the existing international system, all of which ended in worldwide conflict.  More plausible in our minds than a direct challenge to the international system is the possibility that the emerging powers will assume a greater role in areas affecting their vital interests, particularly in view of what may be growing burden fatigue for Western countries.

October Surprise

In the following fictionalized account, global inattention to climate change leads to major unexpected impacts, thrusting the world into a new level of vulnerability.  Scientists are currently uncertain whether we already have hit a tipping point at which climate change has accelerated and whether there is little we can do—including reducing emissions—that will mitigate effects even over the longer term.  Most scientists believe we will not know whether we have hit a tipping point until it is too late.  Uncertainties about the pace and specific vulnerabilities or impacts from climate change are likely to persist over the next 15-20 years even if our knowledge about climate change deepens, according to many scientists.

BRICs’ Bust-Up

In this fictionalized scenario, Chinese fears of disruption of China’s energy supplies spark a clash with India.  With increasing resource constraints likely out to 2025, disputes over resources appear to us to be a growing potential source of conflict.  The sense of vulnerability is heightened by the dwindling number of energy producers and increasing concentration in unstable regions such as the Middle East.  A world in which there are more confrontations over other issues—such as new trade barriers—is likely to increase the potential for any dispute to escalate into conflict. As outlined in this scenario, misperceptions—along with miscom- munications—could play as important a role as any actual threats.  Also illustrated by this scenario is the competition by rising powers for resources.  Both China and India—though rich in coal—have limited and dwindling oil and gas reserves and must rely on foreign sources.  In thinking about the increased potential for conflict in this multipolar world, we need to keep in mind the scope for the emerging powers to clash with one another.

Politics Is Not Always Local

In this fictionalized scenario, a new world emerges in which nation-states are not in charge of setting the international agenda. The dispersion of power and authority away from nation-states has fostered the growth of sub-national and transnational entities including social and political movements.  Growing public concerns about environmental degradation and government inaction come together in this example to “empower” a network of political activists to wrest control of the issue out of country-level officials in capitals.  Global communications technology enables individuals to affiliate directly with identity-driven groups and networks that transcend geographic boundaries.  Environmentalism is an issue for which there is a widespread confluence of interests and desires.

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A Handbook for Citizen-centric eGovernment. PDF Print
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eGovernment unit
DG Information Society and Media,
European Commission, 2007

Citizen-centric governments deliver cost-effective, personalised and relevant e-services that simultaneously enhance democratic dialogue. From our study over 24 months for the European Commission eGovernment Unit1 we assessed the ways in which organisations are changing to deliver eGovernment services, and found that a simple focus on the organisation was not sufficient – it is the way in which the organisation mediates a critical relationship between government and citizen that matters. We found that it is not enough just to implement organisational change. Change in itself will not guarantee delivering services that deliver public value. You can make progress in eGovernment through modernisation and the effective use of IT. You can also work on processes that improve the trust of citizens in government. To make real progress on transforming government services you should aim to positively transform the relationship between government and citizens.

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Global Scenarios to 2025 PDF Print

By National Intelligence Council, 2008

This publication presents a set of three interdisciplinary, global scenarios to 2025 that provide different pictures of possible futures. The National Intelligence Council, in collaboration with workshop participants, identified the following focal questions as the point of departure for the scenario development process:

-          How can the world attain a high level of sustainable economic growth given the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape of the early 21st century?

-          What will the balance of power look like in 2025 and to what degree might collaborative policies and frameworks shape the global context?

Borrowed time

This is a world in which planning for global challenges are largely glossed over until they hit.  Leaders have faith that solutions can be found and they put a lot of trust in technology as a silver bullet for environmental and climate change solutions. In response to governments limited successes though, other non-state actors (NGOs, MNCs, etc) attempt to create the solutions but find success elusive without the support of clear global state-based leadership The more powerful nations tend to be suspicious of one another and avoid any long-term commitment to joint projects (except for limited economic projects). They believe that working alone, bilaterally or through informal groupings tends to bring better payoffs for national interests. For most, particularly the newer powers continued economic growth is the top priority and they want to avoid distractions to that goal. While leaders know that the gap between the rich and poor (both between and within nations) has been widening and even causing disturbances in some countries, they believe that the solution lies in more growth. International policymaking can be characterized as cooperative where it suits short-term interests and requires little sacrifice, yet the bigger powers are not concerned about working at cross purposes if that enables the realization of their strategic goals.

Fragmented World

This is a world in which parochial interests take priority over sustainable economic growth. The lens through which state and non-state actors view and try to address global challenges (such as climate change and proliferation) is primarily one with a local focus, that is, the supply side of the equation is the first priority. ‘International cooperation’ becomes a misnomer as nations focus on what is best for them to the exclusion of international or multilateral interests. The security landscape is characterized by growing risks because of greater national focus and waning multilateral cooperation. Hence there is an increased chance that terrorism (including the possibility of biological attacks), greater numbers of displaced persons, challenges to energy security, and the threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East turn into full-scale crises. R&D increasingly has a strong home bias and technological diffusion dramatically slows as a climate of protectionism takes over. Climate change polices erode, reflecting a reversal from Kyoto. Overall, this is a story of progressively deteriorating environments, a world in which events outpace actions.

Constant Renewal

This is a world in which crises create the shocks needed to force fundamental changes in mindsets among people in key countries – both developed and developing – which carry sufficient weight in the global system to shape developments. It is grassroots pressure which forces change, with various political groups, NGOs, professional organizations and “people-in-the-street” coalescing to act as an orchestrated lobbying group on government leaders in order to force inter-governmental cooperation at a global level.  On the part of the leaders, a stronger international commitment “to make the system work” develops. Environmental sustainability becomes recognized as a global priority alongside maintaining global economic growth. Globalization accelerates and fewer countries are left behind. Technological innovation and R&D, supported by government, and a mix of cooperative and competitive policies becomes the norm. Leaders and pressure groups must, however, work to ensure common interests continue to take precedence. This is a world in which global cooperation is achieved through a mix of existing organizations backed up by the emergence of new global mechanisms where the current ones are found wanting.  In essence, the world “learns by doing,” seeking pragmatic solutions (without dogma) and constantly recalibrating what it should do, without leaving any hostages to fortune.  Progress is often a case of two steps forward, one step back.

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New Trends in Technology Transfer. Implications for National and International Policy PDF Print
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John H. Barton
International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development
Issue Paper No. 18, 2007

This paper describes how technology is today transferred to developing countries and the barriers that affect that transfer. It then identifies policy approaches that might overcome those barriers. It covers (1) the flow of human resources, as through international education, (2) the flow of publicsector technology support, as through research and licensing by international organizations, and (3) the flow of private technology, as through the sale of consumer products (e.g. medicines) that may incorporate embodied technologies through licensing, and through foreign direct investment. After an introduction, the paper looks at these three areas in turn. It concentrates on policy approaches directly associated with technology transfer, thus avoiding issues of the overall investment, legal or political climate in specific developing nations.

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Millennium Assessment Scenarios PDF Print

From Millennium Assessment Scenarios

By Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, USA and Prabhu Pingali, FAO, Italy, Co-Chairs of the Scenarios Working Group, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005.

Global Orchestration

This scenario depicts a worldwide connected society in which global markets are well developed. Supra-national institutions are well placed to deal with global environmental problems, such as climate change and fisheries. However, their reactive approach to ecosystem management makes them vulnerable to surprises arising from delayed action or unexpected regional changes. The scenario is about global cooperation not only to improve the social and economic well-being of all people but also to protect and enhance global public goods and services (such as public education, health, and infrastructure). There is a focus on the individual rather than the state, inclusion of all impacts of development in markets (internalization of externalities), and use of regulation only where appropriate. Environmental problems that threaten human well-being (such as pollution, erosion, and climate change) are dealt with only after they become apparent.

Order from Strength

This scenario represents a regionalized and fragmented world concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, and paying little attention to the common goods, and with an individualistic attitude toward ecosystem management. Nations see looking after their own interests as the best defence against economic insecurity. They reluctantly accept the argument that a militarily and economically strong liberal democratic nation could maintain global order and protect the lifestyles of the richer world and provide some benefits for any poorer countries that elect to become allies. Just as the focus of nations turns to protecting their borders and their people, so too their environmental policies focus on securing natural resources seen as critical for human well-being. People in this scenario see the environment as secondary to their other challenges. They believe in the ability of humans to bring technological innovations to bear as solutions to environmental challenges after these challenges emerge.

Adapting Mosaic

This scenario depicts a fragmented world resulting from discredited global institutions. It sees the rise of local ecosystem management strategies and the strengthening of local institutions. Investments in human and social capital are geared toward improving knowledge about ecosystem functioning and management, resulting in a better understanding of the importance of resilience, fragility, and local flexibility of ecosystems. There is optimism that we can learn, but humility about preparing for surprises and about our ability to know all there is to know about managing socio ecological systems. Initially, trade barriers for goods and products are increased, but barriers for information (for those who are motivated to use it) nearly disappear due to improving communication technologies and rapidly decreasing costs of access to information.


This scenario depicts a globally connected world relying strongly on technology and on highly managed and often-engineered ecosystems to deliver needed goods and services. Overall, eco-efficiency improves, but it is shadowed by the risks inherent in large-scale human made solutions. Technology and market-oriented institutional reform are used to achieve solutions to environmental problems. In many cases, reforms and new policy initiatives benefit from the strong feel for international cooperation that is part of this scenario. As a result, conditions are good for finding solutions for global environmental problems such as climate change. These solutions are designed to benefit both the economy and the environment.

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Global Governance and Technology PDF Print
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Calestous Juma and Jayashree Watal
Center for International Development at Harvard University, 2000

Technology plays a major role in economic and human development and can help the poor in the developing world. The most important decisions taken by the international community are taken within intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). By definition, IGOs are comprised of the representatives of nation states. It is the nation state or groups of nation states that are the most important actors in the global governance of technology.

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Three Middle East Peace Scenarios PDF Print

By Millenium Project, World Federation of UN Associations

Water Works

Water crises led to water negotiations that built trust that peace was possible and boosted political negotiations. Momentum increased with new youth political movements, the "Salaam-Shalom" TV series complemented by Internet peace phone swarms, tele-education in refugee camps, the Geneva Accords complemented by parallel hardliner negotiations, joint development with Arab oil money and Israeli technology, participatory development processes, new oil pipelines from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, and a unique "calendar-location matrix" for time-sharing of the holy sites. UN troops enforced agreements with non-lethal weapons, and new forms of international collaboration cemented the peace.

The Open City

The new Pope challenged Jewish and Muslim religious leaders to solve the question of governance in Jerusalem. Politics, power, and media all played a role in reaching a proposed solution that was ultimately codified in a resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly. The threat of a fatwa ended the suicide bombings; when the bombings stopped, so did the Israeli retaliatory missions. Education of young Muslims gradually changed; schools that once taught hatred moderated. On the question of refugees, the Israelis were concerned about being overwhelmed and outvoted by Palestinian immigrants in their democratic society. The issue promised to be inimical but a compromise restricted the right to vote to people who had lived in Israel for more than seven years. Finally, a historic proposal came to the UN from Israel-it traded guarantees of Israeli security for establishment of a permanent Palestinian state.


Dove" was a secret, contested Israeli plan to de-escalate and unilaterally renounce retaliation in order to demonstrate that Palestinians were aggressors. At the same time, a secret debate was taking place among extremist Palestinians on whether to escalate to more lethal weapons. Those against escalation said "If we desist, Israel will be seen as the aggressor." So each side had reasons for wanting to stop but seemed frozen by circumstances. The tide changed when 27 Israeli pilots said they would not participate in future air raids, initiating the "Refusnik" movement. What happened next was like a chess game. The Israelis got a guarantee that the bombing would stop; the Palestinians got an agreement that the Israelis would withdraw to the pre-1967 borders. A series of non-aggression treaties and agreements stated that Israel had a right to exist. Jerusalem became an open city, with its own democratic government. Immigration quotas were established. Foreign capital flowed into the area. New businesses were established, and unemployment among the Palestinians dropped sharply. It was a self-fulfilling cycle: the move toward peace sparked the environment for peace.

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Future Of The European Union - Enlarged Or Broken? PDF Print

By Patrick Dixon, Global Change, 2011

Major challenges to the future of Europe lie ahead. If the great experiment succeeds, it will create an economic, political and military force to pose real challenges to the United States, with its enlargement to 25 countries and a population approaching 500 million. Recent expansion has already added 23% to the EU's land area and had included 75 million additional citizens, with a combined economy of $9.3 trillion, approaching that of the U.S.

The Most Likely Future for Europe

The most likely scenario for the future of the European Union over the next decade and a half will be slow but steady progress towards integration, held back by the rich diversity of cultures and economic crises. A Greater Europe cannot be built without strong EU governance and visionary leadership, yet these are the two issues which are notably missing at present.The European Parliament does not command the same sense of respect as national Parliaments, nor the connection with ordinary people. This is a serious problem. Who makes decisions in Europe anyway? Is it EU councils of Ministers who are appointed by their own governments? Is it elected representatives of the people (MEPs)? And that is the heart of the problem.What happens when an economic crisis unfolds rapidly - affecting different nations in conflicting ways?  What happens if a nation behaves irresponsibly, in ways that create instabilities and liabilities for other members of the Euro Zone?.

The Future of Europe: Challenge of Tribalism

Culture differences are profound and deeply sensitive to the future of the European Union. Take language for example. In France there is great resentment about the dominance of the English language and it is illegal to play too many English songs on the radio. It is hard to imagine such a profound division between different States of America.Passions of large numbers of people within the EU can be easily inflamed by insensitive decrees from Brussels, or by "unfair" treatment by one country of another. Disputes over budget deficits, overspending, beef, lamb, asylum seekers, chocolate, Iraq and so on are not just superficial. They often hide very long, historical issues and profound resentments. Finding a way through will mean finding a common EU voice, a clear moral lead from a commanding EU figurehead who will bring confidence and clarity. The current system of a 6 monthly rotating leader is unsustainable, confusing, destabilising and makes effective leadership impossible.

The Future of Europe: Challenge of Rapid Enlargement

The European model is changing forever with rapid expansion to the East, doubling the number of countries and embracing nations that are extremely poor in comparison. Governance will be complex (we don't even have an elected President), and so will be the culture mix. Face the facts: ethnic cleansing is a daily reality in Europe - even in the UK. Every night somewhere in Belfast we see sectarian attacks and every morning the removal vans arrive to take another family away to another location. It is the same in Bosnia, and Kosovo, both part of old Yugoslavia, yet another part of the same old nation is entering the EU: Slovenia. So here we have nations rushing to become one, who cannot even stop people in the same street butchering each other because they want to be so different. So expect growth, extension, vast economic trading areas, and with it growing tensions, economic tensions, xenophobia and resentment.

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Future Of The European Union - Enlarged Or Broken? PDF Print
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Patrick Dixon, Global Change, 2011

The most likely scenario for the future of the European Union over the next decade and a half will be slow but steady progress towards integration, held back by the rich diversity of cultures and economic crises. A Greater Europe cannot be built without strong EU governance and visionary leadership, yet these are the two issues which are notably missing at present.

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Cohesion Policy Contributing to Territorial Cohesion – Future Scenarios PDF Print
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Andreas Faludi and Jean Peyrony, European Journal of Spatial Development, September 2011

The Barca Report advocates for developmental policies to be ‘place-based’: integrated as far as they affect ‘places’. The debate on territorial cohesion is equally concerned with integrating relevant policies and actions. This requires well-established democratic institutions and adequate responses to the demands of technical systems and of markets. Following Lisbeth Hooghe and Gary Marks, the respective arrangements are described as Governance Type I and Type II. All levels of government, including that of the EU, partake in both types, but relations between them are problematic, particularly in the context of Europe 2020: Will this EU strategy be mainly a matter for DirectorateGenerals and their various clients pursuing their policies (Governance Type II), or will Cohesion policy, with its more integrated and decentralised approach, involving many levels of government and stakeholders (Governance Type I) form platforms for integrating them? This paper presents four scenarios; each based on a combination of strong/weak Governance Type I and Type II, which are labelled as the ‘Anglo-Saxon’,‘Saint-Simonian’, ‘Rhineland’ and the ‘European’ Scenarios. The authors prefer the latter, but the best one can hope for in the short term is for this option not to fall by the wayside.

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Scenarios for regional development in an enlarged Europe PDF Print
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Ivan Illes presentation prepared for the Conference "Europe's Regions Shaping the Future - the Role of Foresight" Brussels, 24-25 September 2002

Three possible scenarios, based on "deepening versus widening“ for EU enlargement and regional development, are introduced: Big bang enlargement, Failure of enlargement, and Unfinished Enlargement. The first two scenarios demonstrated the problems and potential drawbacks of a European enlargement that is either imposed on the people or not truly implemented at all. Both scenarios showed that foresight in these two scenarios could diagnose the problems at best, but would not assist the regional communities to improve their economic and social welfare, The last scenario, though incomplete in the efforts to provide full integration, did include potential pathways for positive development and economic growth.

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Mapping the Global Future PDF Print

National Intelligence Council, 2004

At no time since the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949 have the shape and nature of international alignments been in such a state of flux. The endof the Cold War shifted the tectonic plates, but the repercussions from these momentous events are still unfolding. Emerging powers in Asia, retrenchment in Eurasia, a roiling Middle East, and transatlantic divisions are among the issues that have only come to ahead in recent years. The very magnitude and speed of change resulting from aglobalizing world—apart from its precise character—will be a defining feature of theworld out to 2020. Other significant characteristics include: the rise of new powers, newchallenges to governance, and a more pervasive sense of insecurity, including terrorism. As we map the future, the prospects for increasing global prosperity and the limited likelihood of great power conflict provide an overall favorable environment for coping with what are otherwise daunting challenges. The role of the United States will be an important variable in how the world is shaped, influencing the path that states and nonstate actors choose to follow.

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