Demography
The World in 2025. Contributions from an expert group PDF Print

By European Research Area, European Commission, 2009

MIRAGE is a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model initially dedicated to the assessment of the impact of trade policy. It relies on a neoclassical framework providing strong theoretical coherence and widely acknowledged by the scientific community. 

Dynamics is sequential: each year is computed based on current and historic economic variables. This means that agents are not assumed to be forward-looking. Dynamics in the model is then driven by the exogenous evolution of the following parameters:

  • population growth
  • labour force available
  • total factor productivity growth
  • evolution of natural resources

Capital accumulation is another driver of the dynamic evolution. It differs from the other determinants above however, as it is endogenously computed by the model. Regional savings determine total investment by region, which is then distributed across sectors on the basis of current return rates.

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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 PDF Print
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Colin D. Mathers, Dejan Loncar
PLOS Medicine, November 2006.
Financial support for this project was provided by the World Health Organization (WHO)

Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results.

 
The demographic future of Europe – from challenge to opportunity PDF Print
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Comission of the European Communities, 2006

Demographic ageing, i.e. the increase in the proportion of older people, is above all the result of significant economic, social and medical progress giving Europeans the opportunity to live a long life in comfort and security that is without precedent in our history. However, as was stressed by the Heads of State and Government at their Hampton Court informal Summit in October 2005, it is also one of the main challenges that the European Union will have to face in the years to come.

 
European Social Models: the challenge of an ageing population PDF Print
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Economic and Financial Affairs, European Comission, 2006

While the European Social Model is a topical subject, in fact there does not appear to be any single model. Instead there are a wide variety of models in the Member States, reflecting different histories, circumstances and political choices that have shaped social welfare provision over the course of time. However, they are faced with new challenges and must adapt to new circumstances. One such challenge today is an ageing population, and DG ECFIN analysts are studying how Europe can respond to this demographic change.

European Social Models: the challenge of an ageing population

 
Europe-s Changing Demography: Constrains and bottlenecks PDF Print
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G. Coomans. Institut de Sciences Mathématiques et Economiques Appliquées
EC. Directorate-General JRC, 1999

Current demographic projections show that the European Union (EU) might reach a stationary level of population in the next half century. However, enlargement to Agenda 2000 countries – Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus - will increase the EU population by one sixth, and immigration along recent trends would postpone global demographic decline by two or more generations.

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Ageing - Turning the age pyramind on its head (1950-2050) PDF Print
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Dialog – Population Policy Acceptance Study (PPAS)
RTDinfo, Magazine on European Research. EC, 2006.

When are you ‘old’? Nowadays, this is becoming at an increasingly advanced age. The terminology reflects the nuances of a changing reality: ‘active ageing’, senior citizens, the elderly and the very elderly. But whatever the words that are used, Europe is greying and it is a phenomenon that poses major challenges for the public finances (health care, pensions), the economy (shrinking workforce) and, at the human level, for the families and social organisations whose support is so vital in the twilight years. Researchers on the Soccare and Care Work projects are investigating all of these issues.

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The Singularity is near. When Humans Transcend Biology PDF Print
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Ray Kurzweil
Viking Press, 2005

For over three decades, the great inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has been one of the most respected and provocative advocates of the role of technology in our future. In his classic The Age of Spiritual Machines, he presented the daring argument that with the ever-accelerating rate of technological change, computers would rival the full range of human intelligence at its best. Now, in The Singularity Is Near, he examines the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the union of human and machine, in which the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains will be combined with the vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability of our own creations.

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World Population Prospects - The 2010 Revision PDF Print

DESA, Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations, 2010

This report presents the highlights of the results of the 2010 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The 2010 Revision  constitutes the twenty second round of the global population estimates and projections produced by the Population Division since 1951.

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From Cyborgs to Cyberbodies: The Evolution of the Concept of Techno-Body in Modern Medicine PDF Print
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Andrea Gaggioli, Marco Vettorello, Giuseppe Riva
Applied Technology for Neuro-Psychology Lab
Istituto Auxologico Italiano, Milan, Italy.
PsychNology Journal, Volume 1, Number 2, 75 - 86, 2003

This paper focuses on the ways in which the introduction of technologies in modern medicine is changing collective notions of the body. In particular, it describes two popular and imaginative conceptualizations of the body that have been inspired by progresses made by medical technologies during last century: the cyborg, and the cyberbody. Although these two models stem from the same post-modern philosophical "post-body", "post-biological," or "post-human" visions, they are characterized by a fundamental distinction. While the cyborg, at least in its original conception, is linked to the “wild wired world”, the world of cells, neurons, blood and biological processes, the cyberbody can be defined as a wireless, inorganic entity, made of pure bits of information.

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Regional population projections EUROPOP2008: Most EU regions face older population profile in 2030 PDF Print

By EUROSTAT, 2008

Population projections are ‘what-if’ scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population. As with Eurostat population projections at national level, EUROPOP2008 regional population projections present one of several possible population change scenarios at NUTS level 2 based on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration for the period 2008-2030.  

The current regional scenario complements the demographic profile suggested by population projections produced by other statistical institutes or other international organisations, which draw alternative paths for the possible evolution of the population.

Highlights:

  • The 2008-based regional population projections EUROPOP2008 show that population may increase in two out of three regions between 2008 and 2030. 
  • However, in 2030, slightly more than half of the regions are projected to continue to increase their population. 
  • The median age of the regions’ population in 2030 is projected to be between 34.2 years and 57.0 years, while in 2008 the range was between 32.9 years and 47.8 years. 
  • Similarly, in 2030, the share of the population aged 65 years or over is expected to range between 10.4 % and 37.3 %. In 2008, the range was between 9.1 % and 26.8 %.

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Nanotechnology and Radically Extended Life Span PDF Print
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Robert A. Freitas
LE Magazine January 2009

A revolution in medical technology looms large on the horizon. The agent of change is microscopically small and is defined in today’s nomenclature as nanotechnology. Nanotechnology is the engineering of molecularly precise structures and, ultimately, molecular machines. The prefix “nano-” refers to the scale of these constructions. A nanometer is one-billionth of a meter, the width of about five carbon atoms nestled side by side. Nanomedicine is the application of nanotechnology to medicine. The ultimate tool of nanomedicine is the medical nanorobot—a robot the size of a bacterium, composed of molecule-size parts somewhat resembling macroscale gears, bearings, and ratchets. Medical nanorobotics holds the greatest promise for curing disease and extending health span. With diligent effort, the first fruits of medical nanorobotics could begin to appear in clinical treatment as early as the 2020s.

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Population Projection PDF Print

By EUROSTAT, 2010

This article looks at Eurostat’s latest population projection scenario (Europop2010) for the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) and the EFTA countries. It focuses more particularly on population ageing, undoubtedly a key demographic challenge in many European countries over the next fifty years. Its implications for socioeconomic systems, such as public pensions programmes, health care or kinship structures, may be considerable.Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population. The European Commission uses the results to analyse the impact of ageing populations on public spending.

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Innovations in Health, Wellness, and Aging-in-Place PDF Print
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Joseph F. Coughlin and James Pope.
Healthways and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) AgeLab, 2008.

The convergence of an aging society with today’s availability of advanced technology is an opportunity to innovate and to think differently about how we live throughout the lifespan, not just in older age. The home is the primary platform for much of life’s activities influencing our health, wellness, independence, and safety as we age. Creatively exploiting technology to provide services that are both needed and desired, while employing effective delivery strategies into the home, will enhance the lives of older people and improve overall quality of life across the lifespan. This article presents the opportunity for intelligent technologies in the home, identifies today’s apparent innovation gap indicated by the slow diffusion of existing smart technologies, and describes an integrated consumer-centric approach thatmay offer promise in translating inventions into innovations in people’s lives across the lifespan.

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World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision PDF Print

Social and Social Affairs, United Nations, 2009

The 2009 Revision presents estimates and projections of the total, urban and rural populations of the world for the period 1950-2050. The results are shown for development groups, six major areas (i.e., Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania) and 21 regions. Data are further presented for the 230 countries or areas of the world. The 2009 Revision also provides estimates and projections of the population of urban agglomerations with at least 750,000 inhabitants in 2009 for the period 1950-2025. Estimates of the proportion of the population living in urban areas and the population of cities are based on national statistics. Population censuses are  the most commonly used sources of data on the proportion urban and the population of cities. However, in some countries, the data used as the basis for estimation are obtained from population registers or administrative statistics. 

The 2009 Revision confirms that the world population is currently slightly more urban than rural, since the level of world urbanization crossed the 50 per cent mark in 2009. Nevertheless, major parts of the world remain largely rural. In both Africa and Asia, still six out of every ten persons live in rural areas. 

Between 2009 and 2050, the world population is expected to increase by 2.3 billion, passing from 6.8 billion to 9.1 billion (United Nations, 2009 a). At the same time, the population living in urban areas is projected to gain 2.9 billion, passing from 3.4 billion in 2009 to 6.3 billion 2050. Thus, the urban areas of the world are expected to absorb all the population growth expected over the next four decades while at the same time drawing in some of the rural population. As a result, the world rural population is projected to start decreasing in about a decade and there will likely be 0.5 billion fewer rural inhabitants in 2050 than today. Furthermore, most of the population growth expected in urban areas will be concentrated in the cities and towns of the less developed regions. Asia, in particular, is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.7 billion, Africa by 0.8 billion, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 0.2 billion. Population growth is therefore becoming largely an urban phenomenon concentrated in the developing world (David Satterthwaite, 2007). 

Realization of these projections is contingent on the continuation of fertility reductions in the developing world. If fertility were to remain constant at current levels and the pace of urbanization remained that projected in the 2009 Revision, the world urban population would increase to 7.6 billion by 2050 instead of the 6.3 billion expected when fertility is assumed to continue declining in all developing regions (United Nations, 2009 c). In many countries, natural increase (the difference of births minus deaths) accounts for 60 per cent or more of urban population growth. Consequently, policies that facilitate the reduction of fertility by ensuring that couples have access to the modern contraception and that they can decide freely the number of children they desire can contribute to moderate increases in the number of urban dwellers, thereby making it easier for developing countries to adjust to the transformations associated with growing urbanization.

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World Population to 2300 PDF Print
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Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations
New York, 2004

Long-range population projections are reported to 2300, covering twice as long a period as ever covered in previous United Nations projections. These projections are not done by major area and for selected large countries (China and India), as was the previous practice, but for all countries of the world, providing greater detail. In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.

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eHealth on the Council Agenda PDF Print
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Daniel Forslund
Swedish Ministry of Health and Social Affairs, 2009

Describing the value of eHealth in healthcare terms is crucial for creating awareness of how technology can improve patient safety, quality and efficiency in healthcare. A study in six Member States (CZ, ES, FR, NL, SE, UK) was launched with the objectives to: provide a benefit model to analyse how political goals can be realised through eHealth, to visualize and quantify fact-based benefits of continued implementation of eHealth in the EU and to provide support for prioritization of investments in eHealth services.

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ESPON scenarios on the territorial future of Europe PDF Print
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ESPON Project 3.2
European Commission, 2007

This report presents several spatial scenarios, exploring alternative directions of possible trends and driving forces related to the future territorial development of the EU. Scenarios must be distinguished from predictions, presenting one most probable course of one or some related trends. A trend scenario is presented, followed by a cohesion-oriented and a competitiveness-oriented ones. The report concludes with a scenario likely to achieve a desirable territorial evolution in Europe.

 
Growth and Migration Scenarios Turkey-EU PDF Print
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Refik Erzan, Umut Kuzubaş, Nilüfer Yıldız
Boğaziçi University, 2006

This is an econometric study aimed at estimating the eventual immigration from Turkey to the EU when Turkey becomes a full member and restrictions on labor mobility are removed. The findings suggest that a successful accession period with high growth reduces and gradually eliminates the migration pressures. The study warns that lower growth and higher unemployment associated with a suspension in Turkey's accession process may produce more immigrants than a successful membership.

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World Population Prospects - The 2008 Revision PDF Print
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DESA, Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations, 2009

Slow population growth brought about by reductions in fertility leads to population ageing, that is, it produces populations where the proportion of older persons increases while that of younger persons decreases. Population ageing is less advanced in developing countries. Nevertheless, the populations of a majority of them are poised to enter a period of rapid population ageing. Globally, the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected almost to triple, increasing from 739 million in 2009 to 2 billion by 2050. In ageing populations, the numbers of persons with older ages grow faster the higher the age range considered. Thus, whereas the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected to triple, that of persons aged 80 or over (the oldest-old) is projected to increase four-fold. Although the population of all countries is expected to age over the foreseeable future, the population will remain relatively young in countries where fertility is still high. In sharp contrast, the populations of 45 countries or areas are expected to decrease between 2010 and 2050. These countries include Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cuba, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, all of which are expected to see their populations decline by at least 10 per cent by 2050.

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New Demographic Scenarios in the Mediterranean Region (1995-2025) PDF Print
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Y. Courbage
National Institute of Demographic Studies, France, 1998

The Arab countries, plus Turkey, Iran and Israel which make up a large group of states with a combined population of over 400 millions in 2000, were until very recently experiencing explosive demographic growth.However the detailed examination of the most recent developments contained in this book show that with few exceptions demographic transition is in fact now under way in each of these countries at an astonishing pace. The projections for the region as a whole are that the Total Fertility Rate will fall from 3.00 in 2000 to 2.08 by 2025. This means that in just one generation from now the differences in fertility between one side of the Mediterranean and the other may be of just a few tenths.

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