Energy
Euronews - Futuris Program PDF Print
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Euronews

Futuris is a science & technology program from Euronews, which highlights future innovations and trends. The Euronews tv station is a 24 hour news channel which is co-owned by major national broadcasters from a total of around 20 European countries. 

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Feuille de route sur les réseaux et systèmes électriques intelligents intégrant les énergies renouvelables PDF Print
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L’Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie (ADEME), 2009

Dans le cas des systèmes et réseaux électriques intelligents intégrant les énergies renouvelables, le groupe d’experts s’est accordé sur l’existence de 3 paramètres clés (« drivers ») qui, sur le long terme, joueront un rôle déterminant sur la forme et la nature des réseaux et des systèmes électriques intelligents : l’offre de produits et de services associés à l’intelligence des réseaux ; le degré et la forme de décentralisation du système et des réseaux électriques; les choix de régulation, les modèles d’affaire et les jeux d’acteurs autour des réseaux et systèmes électriques intelligents.

 
DGTREN - European Energy and Transport. Trends to 2030 (Update 2007) PDF Print
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Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, EC 2008

The Baseline scenario finalised in November 2007 gives an update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the “Trends to 2030” published in 2003 and its 2005 update. The new Baseline scenario takes into account the high energy import price environment of recent years, sustained economic growth and new policies and measures implemented in the Member-States. The results were derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab), supported by some more specialised models. The Baseline scenario for the EU and each of its 27 Member- States simulates current trends and policies as implemented in the Member-States by the end of 2006.

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Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 PDF Print
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Exxon Mobil Corporation, 2009.

The Outlook for Energy is a comprehensive look at long-term trends in energy demand, supply, emissions and technology. The report is built upon detailed analysis of data from about 100 countries, incorporating publicly available information as well as in-house expertise.

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Monitoring towards 2050 PDF Print
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RAC Foundation, UK 2002

The freedom to travel is one of the key qualities of a democracy and we depend on the ability to move around freely to carry out our daily lives; transport is an essential part of a growing economy. Our dependence on travel, particularly by road, was shown by the fuel protests of September 2000 when small number of protesters blockaded the fuel distribution network and within a few days the country was extensively disrupted. The main cause of the protests was initially hauliers complaining about the high cost of fuel duty in the UK compared with their European competitors but it soon turned into a protest about the fuel escalator. This increase in fuel duty above inflation was first imposed by the Conservatives in 1993 and further increased by the Labour administration. Although defended as an environmental tax to lower fuel usage through reducing road use and encouraging more fuel efficient vehicles, the escalator was an easy way to collect an additional £2 billion a year.

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Outlook for Global Transport and Energy Demand PDF Print
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Krail and others. Deliverable 3 of TRIAS (Sustainability Impact Assessment of Strategies Integrating Transport, Technology and Energy Scenarios)

The main objective of the TRIAS project is to perform an integrated sustainability impact assessment of transport, technology and energy scenarios. In order to fulfil the requirements of an integrated sustainability impact assessment five models simulating economic, transport, environment, energy and technology systems were linked in TRIAS. Finally, the linked models are fed with technology scenarios as well as policies for transport and its energy supply.

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Managing Transport Challenges When Oil Prices Rise PDF Print
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McCormick Rankin Cagney, et al, for the New Zealand Transport Agency.

This report provides practical guidance to central, regional, and local government agencies on how to manage the transport challenges associated with rising oil prices. It provides detailed information on:
•  Future Transport Fuel Price – Various forecasts are combined to model future transport fuel prices. This suggests that average oil prices will staying around $110 USD/barrel in the near future, but will increase to approximately $150 USD/barrel in 2012.  
•  Future Travel Demands - Models are used to predict future travel demands, taking into account fuel prices, economic growth, vehicle ownership, workforce participation, and disposable income. Under the average fuel price scenario total New Zealand vehicle travel declines below current levels until approximately 2016, after which the combined effects of population and economic growth will cause vehicle travel to increase.
Optimal Responses to High Oil Costs – Various responses are identified and evaluated in terms of their ability to reduce economic risks and help achieve other planning objectives. The recommended strategies result in a more efficient and diverse transport system, providing various economic, social and environmental benefits.

Newspaper articles summarizing this study are available at
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/591611
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10528808

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Download this file (Managing transport challenges.pdf)Managing transport challenges.pdf[ ]697 Kb
 
Oil Prices, the Kondratiev Cycle and Peak Oil PDF Print
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Michael A. Alexander, 2006

A cautiously bullish view on stocks and the economy based on P/R valuation, continuation of low interest rates and the Juglar cycle. This view is critically dependent on assumptions that there are no disruptions to oil supply in the near future and (especially) that peak oil is still some years off. Not all disruptions would be bearish. Financial crisis in China could well play out positively, as the Asian crisis in the 1990's did. But factors such as a showdown with Iran have the potential for serious market declines and recession.

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Download this file (Oil_Prices.pdf)Oil_Prices.pdf[ ]81 Kb
 
Peak Oil Depletion PDF Print
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Freddy Hutter. 2008

Chart for prediction and projection of Peak date, rate and decline.

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Is The U.S. On The Path To The Lowest Motor Vehicle Fatalities In Decades? PDF Print
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Michael Sivak for the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

This study found that a 2.7% decline in vehicle travel caused by fuel price increases and a weak economy during 2007-08 resulted in much larger 17.9% to 22.1% month-to-month declines in traffic deaths, probably due to disproportionate reductions in vehicle travel by lower income drivers (who tend to be young and old, and therefore higher than average risk), and speed reductions to save fuel.

 
Energy to 2050. Scenarios for a sustainable future PDF Print

By International Energy Agency, 2009

WEO-2009 sets out, for key countries and regions (including the United States, Japan, the European Union, Russia, China and India), the energy transformation that each might undertake, sector by sector, if the world were to adopt a 450 ppm trajectory. It also describes the current trends in energy use and emissions in a fully updated Reference Scenario, detailing the implications of current policies and taking into account the global financial and economic crisis.

Reference Scenario. This scenario shows how global energy markets would evolve if governments make no change to their exisiting policies. It takes account of government policies and measures enacted or adoptedby mid-2009. Under this scenario, in the absence of new initiatives to tackle climate change, rising global fossil fuel use increases energy-related CO2 emissions from 29 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2007 to over 40 Gt in 2030 and contributes to the deterioration of ambient air quality with serious public health and environmental effects. Such a scenario would result, according to IEA analysis, in a concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of around 1 000 ppm in the long term.

450 Scenario. This scenario analyses measures in the energy sector which might be taken in order to fulfil a coordinated global commitment with the ultimate aim of stabilising the concentration of greenhouse gas-emissions in the atmosphere at 450 ppm CO2 equivalent. This level of concentration is expected to give rise to a global temperature increase of 2C. The 450 scenario also reflects a plausible set of commitments and policies which could emerge from the climate-change negotiations in the period through to 2020. The scenario entails USD 10.5 trillion more investment in energy infrastructure and energy-related capital stock globally than in the reference scenario. (USD 4.7 trillion in transport; USD 2.5 trillion in buildings; USD 1.7 trillion in power plants; USD 1.1 trillion in industry; USD 0.4 trillion in biofuel production.) These costs are at least partly offset by economic, health and energy-security benefits.

Under the 450 scenario. Global energy-related CO2 emissions peak at 30.9 Gt just before 2020 and decline thereafter to 26.4 Gt in 2030. Primary energy demand grows by 20 % between 2007 and 2030, which corresponds to an annual growth rate of 0.8 %. The average emissions intensity of new cars is reduced by more than half, and their oil needs fall. The share of non-fossil fuels in the overall primary energy mix increases from 19 % in 2007 to 32 % in 2030, when CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are less than half their 2007 level. Fossil fuels nonetheless remain the dominant energy sources in 2030. End-use efficiency accounts for more than half the total saving in energy emissions and power-generation accounts for more than two-thirds of the savings. By 2030, transport demand for oil is cut by 12 million barrels per day, which equals more than 70 % of oil savings.

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ESPON ReRisk - Regions at Risk of Energy Poverty PDF Print

ESPON, 2010

This project focuses on opportunities to support competitive and clean energy supplies for regions in Europe and to generate and strengthen sustainable energy sources. It delivers future-oriented territorial evidence on the impact of rising energy prices on the competitiveness of European regions as well as on cohesion in Europe in a long-term perspective.

  • Green High Tech. This scenario assumes a quick development of renewable energy sources, both large and small-scale, in which the regions gain greater influence on energy policy. In this scenario, regions can specialize on certain types of renewable energy production and will win from cooperation and shared networks.
  • Energy-efficient Europe. This scenario assumes a greater use of natural gas by 2030, while trying to keep Europe’s energy dependency within limits through important efficiency gains in all sectors and a move towards more regionalized economies. In this situation, regions that depend on gas supplies from one producer region only, will have to deal with a higher risk of supply interruptions, but economic development will probably follow a fairly balanced and more sustainable path.
  • Nuclear Energy for Big Regions. This scenario assumes that the power sector will remain highly centralized, since few players are able to carry out the needed investment. The logical consequence would be to “go electric” both in industry and transport, but these decisions will be little influenced by local and regional policy makers.
  • Business as usual? In this scenario, only a moderate transition to renewable energy sources has taken place. Energy systems are dominated by centralised solutions and coal use for electricity generation has increased. Central Asian, Russian and Arctic gas deposits have become increasingly important for Europe’s energy supply. This has meant major capital investments in natural gas pipelines and storage. The construction and operating costs associated with nuclear power, the public concerns about waste storage, insecure uranium supply, and security concerns have all contributed to the phase-out of nuclear energy programmes.

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Desert Power 2050: Perspectives on a Sustainable Power System for EUMENA PDF Print
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Florian Zickfeld, Aglaia Wieland, Dii GmbH, June 2012

Desert Power 2050 (DP2050) examines the future energy challenges of Europe as well as the Middle East and North Africa (EUMENA). It shows that these challenges can best be addressed by moving beyond the currently predominant view of the two regions as separate entities. Indeed, Europe and MENA are not just neighbors, tied together by a long history of trade and cultural exchange; in a world of renewable energy, EUMENA should be viewed as a single region.

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2011 Technology Map of the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) PDF Print
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Institute for Energy and Transport, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 2011

The swift deployment on a large scale of technologies with a low-carbon footprint in the European energy system is a prerequisite for the transition to a low-carbon society - a key strategic objective of the European Union. A necessary condition for the timely market roll-out of these low-carbon energy technologies is an acceleration of their development and demonstration. This is catalysed by the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) through the streamlining and amplifying of the European human and financial resources dedicated to energy technology innovation. SETIS, the SET-Plan information system, has been supporting SET-Plan from its onset, providing referenced, timely and unbiased information and analyses on the technological and market status and the potential impact of deployment of low-carbon energy technologies, thereby assisting decision makers in identifying future R&D and demonstration priorities which could become focal areas for the SET-Plan.

The Technology Map is one of the principal regular deliverables of SETIS. It is prepared by JRC scientists in collaboration with colleagues from other services of the European Commission and with experts from industry, national authorities and academia, to provide:

  • a concise and authoritative assessment of the state of the art of a wide portfolio of low-carbon energy technologies;
  • their current and estimated future market penetration and the barriers to their large-scale deployment;
  • the ongoing and planned R&D and demonstration eff orts to overcome technological barriers; and,
  • reference values for their operational and economic performance, which can be used for the modelling and analytical work performed in support of implementation of the SET-Plan.

This third edition of the Technology Map, i.e. the 2011 update, addresses 20 different technologies, covering the whole spectrum of the energy system, including both supply and demand technologies

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The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World. Scenarios to 2030 PDF Print

World Economic Forum, 2010

The Winners and the Rest: This is a world in which high global growth delays the financial consequences of the growing demographic crisis. Despite growing liabilities from ageing populations, most governments are able to maintain scaled-back versions of existing social security systems, which they do as a matter of political expediency. However amid growing inequality and underinvestment in the public sector, such systems are seen as increasingly inadequate by those forced by low incomes to rely on them, creating a conflict-ridden climate of “The Winners and the Rest” on a global scale.

Global context:

  • Emerging economies drive strong global growth, averaging 4.5% to 2030
  • Robust capital markets provide consistently solid returns
  • Diverging returns on capital and labour lead to burgeoning inequality
  • Resentment grows due to rising income and wealth inequality between the highly educated and the less educated
  • Broad societal support for a capitalistic model with a strong focus on individual responsibility and grasping economic opportunities exists

Pensions and healthcare in general

  • Tax-rich governments repeatedly postpone fundamental pension system reforms, supported by strong economic growth
  • Public social security in many developed countries is considered as a (bare) minimum safety net; the well off focus on private market pension and healthcare solutions
  • The gap in sophistication between public and private healthcare grows; new medical technologies are aimed primarily at high earners
  • Unskilled workers and poorer countries see few improvements in pension and healthcare, in both quality and coverage

We Are in This Together: This is a world distinguished by a concerted effort on behalf of leaders and electorates to rein in growing inequality and reassert the idea of collective responsibility and accountability for social services. In this world, growth is moderate, but lower-than expected returns on capital are compensated for by an emphasis on finding innovative, efficient and inclusive ways to manage the financial implications of the demographic shift, including family and community-based solutions.

Global context:

  • Global downturn in early 2010s provokes a backlash against extreme income and wealth inequality
  • Global economic growth averages 3% to 2030
  • Global sentiment of solidarity and togetherness as opposed to individualism develops
  • Strong focus on intergenerational equity is apparent
  • The effects of climate change and a pandemic demonstrate global interdependence
  • International action simplifies and increases harmonization in tax and pension systems
  • E-government and Internet activism fuel resurgence of local civic engagement
  • Developed countries step up structural aid to tackle world poverty

Pensions and healthcare in general:

  • In developed countries, pension and healthcare reforms are enacted in the name of sustainable, adequate security for all
  • International cooperation helps manage effects of ageing societies, e.g. migration and macro-swaps
  • Back-to-basics health approach emphasizes prevention and healthcare effectiveness
  • Medical improvements focus on mass market
  • Governments focus on enabling community-based care
  • Many developing countries implement pension and healthcare reforms, yet lack the financial means to significantly improve coverage and quality
  • Public-private initiatives extend pensions and healthcare coverage to the poor

You Are on Your Own: This is a world in which an economic recession is prolonged in the early 2010s, causing fiscal difficulties for most state-funded pension and health systems. Individual responsibility is forced upon many people by the failure of existing social security systems under extreme financial pressure. Struggling to borrow or raise taxes sufficiently, many governments take aggressive measures to push healthcare and pension liabilities onto individuals and the private sector, maintaining only an absolutely minimal role in social security provision for the very needy.

Global context:

  • Prolonged recession and stagflation hit public finances
  • Financial crises and serious natural resource constraints hold growth to approximately 2% into the 2020s
  • Governments take aggressive action to reduce public spending and reluctantly adopt a “social security provider of the last resort” approach
  • Liberalizing reforms leave many people resentful
  • In late 2020s, growth recovers as the benefits of liberalization kick in
  • Younger people adopt aggressively self-reliant mindset and take strong individual responsibility for finance and health

Pensions and healthcare in general:

  • State-funded, universal care systems end in many countries; governments focus on minimal social security for the most needy only
  • The traditional concept of “retirement” is replaced by the “lifestyle planning” paradigm. Many people remain employed/active in their 70s and beyond
  • Children of baby boomers are considered the “lost generation” as they must finance their own pensions and those of the previous generation
  • Strong focus on financial and health education empowers people to take individual responsibility
  • Despite efforts, quality of basic public healthcare systems steadily deteriorates
  • Private healthcare becomes an “expensive necessity” and oversubscribed; the focus on prevention becomes strong

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Future Transport Fuels PDF Print
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European Expert Group on Future Transport Fuels, 2011

Transport fuel supply today, in particular to the road sector, is dominated by oil, which has proven reserves that are expected to last around 40 years. The combustion of mineral oil derived fuels gives rise to CO2 emissions and, despite the fact the fuel efficiency of new vehicles has been improving, so that these emit significantly less CO2 , total CO2 emissions from transport have increased by 24% from 1990 to 2008, representing 19.5% of total European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions. 

The EU objective is an  overall reduction of CO2 emissions of 80-95%  by the year 2050, with respect to the 1990 level. Decarbonisation of transport and the substitution of oil as transport fuel therefore have both the same time horizon of 2050. Improvement of transport efficiency and management of transport volumes are necessary to support the reduction of CO2 emissions while fossil fuels still dominate, and to enable finite renewable resources to meet the full energy demand from transport in the long term.  

Alternative fuel options for substituting oil as energy source for propulsion in transport are: 

1.-Electricity/hydrogen, and biofuels (liquids) as the main options. 

  • Electricity  and  hydrogen are universal energy carriers and can be produced from all primary energy sources. Both pathways can in principle be made CO2 free; the CO2 intensity depends on the energy mix for electricity and hydrogen production. Propulsion uses electric motors. The energy can be supplied via three main pathways:

    • Battery-electric (with electricity from the grid stored on board vehicles in batteries) Power transfer between the grid and vehicles requires new infrastructure and power management
    • Fuel cells powered by hydrogen, used for on-board electricity production. Hydrogen production, distribution and storage require new infrastructure. 
    • Overhead Line / Third Rail for tram, metro, trains, and trolley-buses, with electricity taken directly from the grid without the need of intermediate storage.

  • Biofuels could technically substitute oil in all transport modes, with existing power train technologies and existing re-fuelling infrastructures. Use of biomass resources can also decarbonise synthetic fuels, methane and LPG. First generation biofuels are based on traditional crops, animal fats, used cooking oils. They include FAME biodiesel, bioethanol, and biomethane.

2.-Synthetic fuels, as a technology bridge from fossil to biomass based fuels, substituting diesel and jet fuel, can  be produced from different feedstock, converting biomass to liquid (BTL), coal to liquid (CTL) or gas to liquid (GTL). Hydrotreated vegetable oils (HVO), of a similar paraffinic nature, can be produced by hydrotreating plant oils and animal fats. Synthetic fuels can be distributed, stored and used with existing infrastructure and existing internal combustion engines.

3.-Methane (natural gas and biomethane) as complementary fuels. Methane can be sourced from fossil natural gas or from biomass and wastes as biomethane. Biomethane should preferentially be fed into  the general gas grid. Methane powered vehicles should then be fed from a single grid. Additional  refuelling infrastructure has to be built up to ensure widespread supply.

4.-Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as supplement. LPG  is a by-product of the hydrocarbon fuel chain, currently resulting from oil and natural gas, in future possibly also from biomass. LPG is currently the most widely used alternative fuel in Europe, accounting for 3% of the fuel for cars and powering 5 million cars.

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Energy to 2050. Scenarios for a sustainable future PDF Print

OECD and International Energy Agency, 2003

The scenarios are differentiated on the bases of two variables: pace of technological change and attitudes towards the global environment. With each variable characterised by a "high" and "low" level, four different scenarios are derived. Assuming the reference case is technology and environmental awareness that proceed along current paths, three additional cases can be analysed: the high environment, low technology case (referred to as "Clean but not sparkling"), the high technology but low environmental case (called "Dynamic but careless"), and the high technology and high environment case, referred to as "Bright skies".

  • Clean, but not Sparkling. This scenario is characterised by a strong concern for the global environment by both the public and policymakers but a relatively slow rate of technological change. Contrary to a common wisdom for which strong pro–environment policies would lead to a rapid development of environmental friendly technologies, a number of other factors could put such an outcome at risk. In this scenario a combination of pessimistic perceptions about technology and overzealous policy intervention do not allow for the full potential of technological development to be released. Furthermore, insufficient investment in R&D or failure of these research efforts to produce results leads to limited technological progress. As in this scenario technologies fail to deliver, environmental goals are largely met through induced changes in behaviour, and likely only at rather high costs.
  • Dynamic but Careless. This scenario is characterised by very dynamic technological change, low priority for climate change mitigation and a generalised belief that sustained growth and rapid progress in technologies will take care of all problems without need for much policy intervention. As a corollary, this scenario has more rapid economic growth than the first one, including more open but less regulated markets. Unhindered economic growth is the main priority, shared by developed and developing countries alike. However, not all countries are able to achieve fast growth rates and some lag behind. Global threats such as climate change take a back seat in the concerns of both citizens and politicians. Although energy represents a relatively small share of production inputs or household spending, low energy prices and security of supply are considered an important condition for economic growth. At the beginning, progress is faster in fossil fuel based technologies, helping to maintain low prices. In both developed and developing countries local environmental problems are not ignored but are dealt with at the local level and consistently with the economic resources of the affected communities or individually through pollution impact averting behaviour. As a consequence of these initial conditions, fossil fuel demand grows rapidly, followed by an increase in GHG emissions. These two factors increase the likelihood of energy security of supply crises and worsening environmental conditions. To deal with security of supply, and in the continuous quest for low energy costs the system accelerates the development of new technologies. While the first phase of this scenario is therefore heavily oriented towards fossil fuel-based technologies, in the second part of the scenario horizon, non-fossil technologies emerge too.
  • Bright Skies. This scenario is characterised by both rapid technological change and strong concern for the global environment by both the public and policymakers. Other features of this scenario include a (global) GDP growth rate somewhere in between the first two cases but closer to the second, robust trade and market liberalisation trends, a narrowing down of income differences across regions and countries. As a result, overall, energy prices will be somewhat higher than in the second scenario but lower than in the first. In this scenario, governments of developed countries agree to deal with the threat of climate change in a co-ordinated fashion and to take action to slow down and reverse current trends in GHG emissions. In due time they are joined in this process by developing countries, who agree to take increasingly stringent commitments for GHG emission control and reduction. Domestically, developed country governments set out to design and implement policies that will, on the one hand, encourage a reduction of energy-related GHG emissions and, on the other, channel both government and private resources towards development of new technologies for climate change mitigation. These efforts produce a host of positive technological outcomes, which allow the attainment of environmental goals, and also enhance energy security while keeping prices relatively low.

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Global Wind Energy Outlook 2010 PDF Print
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Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), 2010

Wind energy has become an important player in the world’s energy markets. Global wind power markets have been for the past several years dominated by three major markets: Europe, North America (US), and Asia (China and India). While these three markets still accounted for 86% of total installed capacity at the end of 2009, there are signs that this may be changing. Emerging markets in Latin America, Asia and Africa are reaching critical mass and we may be surprised to see one or more of them rise to challenge the three main markets in the coming years.

Commercial wind farms now operate in close to 80 countries, and present many benefits for both developed and developing countries: increased energy security; stable power prices; economic development which both attracts investment and creates jobs; reduced dependence on imported fuels; improved air quality; and, of course, CO2 emissions reductions. Each of these factors is a driver in different measure in different locations, but in an increasing number of countries they combine to make wind power the generation technology of choice.

The Global Wind Energy Outlook (GWEO) 2010 presents three different scenarios for global wind power development up to 2030. By providing detailed wind power trajectories for all the world’s regions, the GWEO 2010 shows how global wind power capacity could reach 2,300 GW by 2030, providing up to 22% of the world's electricity needs.

In the GWEO Advanced scenario, the average annual growth for cumulative installed capacity is assumed to start off at 27% in 2010, and then gradually decline to 9% by 2020. By 2030, they will have dropped to 4%. Growth rates as anticipated by the IEA in the Reference scenario start at 17% in 2010, drop to 3% by 2015, stabilising at that level. The growth rates for the Moderate scenario range from 26% in 2010 to 9% in 2020 and to 5% in 2030.

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Shell energy scenarios to 2050 PDF Print
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Shell International, 2008

To help think about the future of energy, we have developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways it may develop. In the first scenario – called Scramble – policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario – Blueprints – growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions.

Scramble Scenario

Scramble reflects a focus on national energy security. Immediate pressures drive decision-makers, especially the need to secure energy supply in the near future for themselves and their allies.  National government attention naturally falls on the supply-side levers readily to hand, including the negotiation of bilateral agreements and incentives for local resource development.  Growth in coal and biofuels becomes particularly significant. Despite increasing rhetoric, action to address climate change and encourage energy efficiency is pushed into the future, leading to largely sequential attention to supply, demand and climate stresses. Demand-side policy is not pursued meaningfully until supply limitations are acute. Likewise, environmental policy is not seriously addressed until major climate events stimulate political responses. Events drive late, but severe, responses to emerging pressures that result in energy price spikes and volatility. This leads to a temporary slowdown within an overall story of strong economic growth.Although the rate of growth of atmospheric CO2 has been moderated by the end of the period, the concentration is on a path to a long-term level well above 550 ppm. An increasing fraction of economic activity and innovation is ultimately directed towards preparing for the impact of climate change. - Fear and security- Fight into coal- The next green revolution- Solutions are very rarely without drawbacks- The bumpy road to climate change- Necessity – the mother of invention

Blueprints Scenario

Blueprints scenario describes the dynamics behind new coalitions of interests. These do not necessarily reflect uniform objectives, but build on a combination of supply concerns, environmental interests, and associated entrepreneurial opportunities. It is a world where broader fears about life style and economic prospects forge new alliances that promote action in both developed and developing nations. This leads to the emergence of a critical mass of parallel responses to supply, demand, and climate stresses, and hence the relative promptness of some of those responses. This is not driven by global altruism. Initiatives first take root locally as individual cities or regions take the lead. These become progressively linked as national governments are forced to harmonise resulting patchworks of measures and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these emerging political initiatives. Indeed, even the prospect of a patchwork of different policies drives businesses to lobby for regulatory clarity.As a result, effective market-driven demand-side efficiency measures emerge more quickly, and market-driven CO2 management practices spread. Carbon trading markets become more efficient, and CO2 prices strengthen early. Energy efficiency improvements and the emergence of mass-market electric vehicles are accelerated. The rate of growth of atmospheric CO2 is constrained leading to a more sustainable environmental pathway. - Starting at the grassroots- Paths to alignment- Developments benefit the energy poor- Both disaggregation and integration- Blueprints for climate change responses.

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World Energy Technology Outlook – WETO H2 PDF Print
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European Commission
Directorate-General for Research, 2006.

The WETO-H2 study has developed a Reference projection of the world energy system to test different scenarios for technology and climate policies in the next half-century; it has a particular focus on the diffusion of hydrogen as a fuel. This Reference projection adopts exogenous forecasts for population and economic growth in the different world regions and it makes consistent assumptions for the availability of fossil energy resources and for the costs and performances of future technologies. It uses a world energy sector simulation model – the POLES model – to describe the development to 2050 of the national and regional energy systems and of their interactions through international energy markets, under constraints on resources and from climate policy.

 
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