South West Mediterranean Region
EuroMed-2030. Long term challenges for the Mediterranean area PDF Print

European Union, 2011

The report ‘EuroMed-2030: Long term challenges for the Mediterraneanarea’ aimed to anticipate change in various aspects of the Euro-Mediterranean relations and independently support the European Commission’s reflection in its future policy orientations.

Contrasting demographic and macroeconomic trends on the two sides of the Mediterranean offer real prospects of economic complementarities. Putsimply, Europe will need workers from the South if it is not to shrink and to age and possibly to decay. The need for jobs in the young and growing populations of the South side of the Mediterranean may in the right circumstances match the need for labour of the ageing European Union; it should be an objective of policy to create those circumstances. Proactive engagement of politicians to honestly address the real practical needs for more flexible immigration policies in the face of hostility from nationalistic and xenophobic political elements is an essential first step.

One key to unlock this potential is education. In spite of real progress, much remains to be done to adapt the education systems in the countries in the South to the requirements of economic development. It is in the interests of both parties that better trained youth on the Southern side of the Mediterranean should contribute to more economic development at home and find jobs in their own countries – and also that future labour migrants have the qualifications needed in the European labour market. Europe has much expertise to offer in this domain as in the domain of research.

There are important resource constraints that operate on both sides of the Mediterranean. The shortage of water is a serious concern on both shore sand is likely to get worse as a consequence of climate change; the impact on agriculture and rural communities is dramatic. Management of these issues would benefit from a cooperative approach across the Euro-Mediterraneanarea. Europe can offer technical expertise for improved managemen tof water resources. Potentially the SEMCs could develop research and innovation capabilities in desalination, recycling and agriculture of arid lands. Euro-Mediterranean cooperation aiming to encourage where necessary the international management of the resource should be reactivated.

Many SEMCs are among the worst affected by climate change, although they contribute only very little to the global problem. Technical assistance with adaptation activities is well justified. The countries are, with some exceptions, also vulnerable in terms of security and cost of energy supply. This implies the need for common strengthening of supply networks, improvement of energy efficiency and taking advantage of huge renewable energy potentials. Cooperationis in the mutual interest in order to: strengthen supply networks; improve energy efficiency and to take advantage of the huge potential in renewable energy, notably solar energy, in the countries of the region. Concrete projects which have been initiated should be reinforced, and a suitable financial and commercial framework should be found for Europe’s involvement in these developments and their future benefits that ensures their commercial valueand ensures a return to the host countries through the creation of related opportunities for research, innovation and manufacture of the necessary materials and equipment.

On a more cultural and political side, the report shows that the trends of religion and culture as well as geopolitics and governance will require more focused attention. On the one hand, the existing stereotypes of the confrontorial relation between Islam and European Enlightenment values createa serious obstacle to deepening of the Euro-Mediterranean dialogue that implies an imperative for a positive intercultural dialogue. On the other hand, the political concept of the Mediterranean is not obvious and needs to beas such taken into consideration, while the Member States of the EU are working towards strengthening of the common vision of the European Union in the framework of its external policies.

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Jurisdictional waters in the Mediterranean and Black Seas PDF Print

European Parliament, 2009

The way in which states’ declare their maritime jurisdictions in the Mediterranean and Black Seas reveals not only the image and iconography of a new territorial and political reality but also the formal – geographical – factors on which it is constructed, and some of the reasons behind the territorial disputes and tensions. The political shape of the Mediterranean region is characterised by a clear division between the north and south coasts, the first comprised, to a large extent, of EU Member States, thus implying greater cohesion and the existence of common policies, and the latter (the North African coast) with a weak political structure. Nonetheless, in terms of the maritime map, national interests predominate both north and south, with a resulting mosaic of jurisdictions that facilitates neither bilateral nor multilateral agreements.

The legal framework of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS] (1982) provides jurisdictional structure to the maritime space. UNCLOS defines a number of territorial spaces that may wholly or partly be proclaimed by coastal states. The main territorial forms that national jurisdiction of the maritime space may take are as follows: internal waters, territorial sea and contiguous zone, continental shelf and exclusive economic zone. Waters located beyond the jurisdiction of the states are defined as the ‘highseas’; seabed and subsoil not subject to state jurisdiction is known as the ‘area’. Along side the jurisdictional spaces defined in UNCLOS, the coastal states of the Mediterranean Sea have also established fisheries protection zones and ecological protection zones.

The limited size of the Mediterranean Sea is such that if the states were to claim full jurisdiction of their waters, the whole sea would be under national jurisdiction. Some states have not proclaimed their sovereign rights, however, and this means that a considerable proportion of the waters do in fact remain high seas.

There is moreover a north-south a symmetry in the Mediterranean in relation to the number of states located along its coastline. While there are 12 countries on the north coast (Spain, France, Monaco, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Greece and Turkey, there are only five on the south (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt). In addition, the fact that Italy is a peninsula situated in the centre of theMediterranean, with its coastline close to the coasts of opposite countries, increases theneed for delimitation agreements in this part of the Mediterranean.

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Spanish cities and HST: National, Regional and Urban strategies PDF Print
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José M. de Ureña and Cecilia Ribalaygua, 2004

The official 2000-2007 High Speed Railway Transportation Plan suggests a great expansion of the network, upgrading of several existing lines together with the creation of new ones. With a speedof 300 km/h in the new lines and 200 km/h in the upgraded ones, the new high speed railway network is envisaged to serve all Spanish provincial capital cities, and three international connections, two with France and one with Portugal.

Cities with an intermediate location in high-speed rail lines face this new transportation service with different strategies, depending upon their capacity or political strength and their socio-economic and spatial characteristics. We will describe these strategies at three spatial levels: national, regional and urban. In each scale multiple actions take place in an unorganised manner to face high speed train integration. We will classify them into two groups: those and those implying flows and those implying activities.

  • The city size is related to the station location
  • The station location in relation to the city will have great importance. Depending on its location different opportunities may take place:
    • Central stations allow for the consolidation of central tertiary activities (Córdoba, Valladolid,Lérida, etc.)
    • Peripheral stations allow new peripheral urban developments
    • It is not clear if central or peripheral station favour more intercity relations in the sub-regionor province.
  • The station size and form, not only its location, allow for an easy or difficult urban development. This has been shown in the cases of:
    • Cordoba and Lérida allow a better urban structure due to their size and design together with the urban project
    • Zaragoza shows a previously designed and over dimensioned station that will increase difficulties for a good the surrounding urban structure and an urban integration
  • The territorial role doesn’t depend only on the station location but mostly on other factors:
    • Local economic, urban and social dynamics (more positive in tertiary based cities)
    • The real amount of accessibility change facilitated by high speed train
    • The strategies to accompany the arrival of high speed train services
  • In most cases, private housing developments are an immediate consequence in the surrounding of high speed stations
    • In general quite an amount of railway land gets redundant in the surroundings of stations maintained or located nearby old stations. Benefits obtained by developments is normally used to partially finance the new station or other aspects (underground tracks).
    • If stations have new locations housing urban developments are also frequent (Guadalajara ,Ciudad Real, Tarragona, etc.), although in these cases economic benefits are only for private developers.e. 
  • Different strategies depending on city size
    • Small cities
      • Only half of the really have a strategy
      • Only half of them are over new transportation corridors
      • Strongly conditioned by railway decisions
    • Medium size cities
      • Strongly concentrated on reinforcing the city centre
    • Big cities
      • Different track width may increase polarization towards these cities
      • They seek more an urban than an interurban strategy
      • If interurban strategy is important the station is oversized and urban development is difficult
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The Role of tourist destinations in the social and demographic transformation of the Spanish Mediterranean Coast PDF Print

Francesc González Reverté, UOC, 2008

Tourist cities play a differential role in the process of urbanization of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. Compared with the rest of urban typologies tourist cities have greater social and demographic transformations that make them potentially competitive. The main findings about that issue are two fold: 1) Spanish Mediterranean coast process of urbanizationis characterized by an a symmetrical “littoralization”. 2) It exist a link between the progressof the urban process and the acceleration of demographic and social change in tourism cities, especially in terms of social modernization and household structure and composition.

Spanish Mediterranean coast continues to allure population and residents, as concentration of residences, production and services, and the good perception of quality of life indicate. There is no doubt that in the short term human pressure over the coast will increase and spatialconflicts will also appear. This is a challenge for urban and land planning. Nevertheless the increase of complexity tied to social change and the transformation of household andpopulation can also be read as an opportunity to improve competitive strategies through creativity.The results of this work are provisional and should be revised and widened in future research. Particularly our interest is focused on the sociodemographic transformation and heir relationship with the competitiveness of the tourist local system.  

Four central issues should be undertaken in new research 1) the impact of migration and how it sharpens the demographic structure; 2) the patterns of settlement and the social and cultural roles of the creative class; 3) to identify the social and demographic elements linked with territorial innovation and competitiveness; and 4) to identify tourism clusters based on the competitive strength of their human capital.

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IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook 2010 PDF Print
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European Institute of the Mediterranean, 2010

The economic crisis, the development of the Union for the Mediterranean and the new political actors are the key issues of this edition, which includes a dossier on the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area. 

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Infrastructures and sustainable energy development in the Mediterranean: outlook 2025 PDF Print
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El Habib El Andaloussi, Plan Bleu, 2010

With a total of 955 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), the Mediterranean region accounted for 8% of the world primary energy consumption in 2007. Between 1971 and 2007, this volume passed from 410 to 955 Mtoe, based on an annual average growth rate of 2.5%. Consumption per capita stood at 2100 Koe. It is 13% higher than the world average, and had increased, on average, at the rate of 1.3% per year between 1971 and 2007.

The consumption of the NMCs, standing at around 1130 TWh in 2007, represented nearly three times that of the SEMCs (422 TWh).

In the NMCs, the total final consumption (TFC) by sector reported an average annual growth by 1.5% between 1971 and 2007, whose breakdown goes as follows: 2.8% for transport, 1.8% for the residential sector, 0.3% for industry and 1.8% for the other sectors. The share of the transport sector in the NMCs increased considerably over the period (passing from 19% to 31%).

In the SEMCs, the TFC, of around 202 Mtoe, presents the following breakdown: the industrial sector (37%), the household sector (27%), the transport sector (26%) and the other sub-sectors (11%). The most significant consumption increase relates to the residential sector: + 29%, between 2000 and 2007. The consumption of the industrial sector increased by 25%, while that of the transport sector increased by 23% over the same period.

Fossil energies (oil, gas, coal) account for 80% of the energy supply. Four producing countries—namely Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Syria—provide 22% of the oil imports and 35% of the gas imports of the whole Mediterranean basin.

Gas infrastructures: The capacity of the export infrastructure for natural gas, gas pipelines and LNG is around 125 Gm3 per year. Gas exports totalled around 85 Gm3 in 2007 (59 Gm3 from Algeria). With 7 plants, the LNG infrastructure in the Mediterranean represents over a third of the number of LNG plants on world level, for a capacity of 45 Gm3/year. Algeria counts 4 plants. There are also 8 gas pipelines of over 80 Gm3/year.

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Make a Mediterranean area of territories, towns and regions PDF Print
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Institut de propspective économique du monde Méditeranéen, 2011

Yet this heritage is jeopardized by several challengesthat the region is having trouble controlling,and which are not only threatening its potential fortourism but weakening the role that territories playin contemporary economic development:

  • Rapid urbanization formerly in Europe and currently to the South and East, occurring without adequate planning control often without provision foressential urban services, with no prior anticipation of risk prevention (e.g. earthquakes, climate, flooding,etc.), and without giving towns a chance to capitalize on the savings resulting from built-up areas that modern development needs;
  • Excessive coastline construction, which concentratesin over-exploited territories all the environmental constraints that development cannot fully stamp out, despite the fact that their density is apotential basis for ecologically efficient management;
  • Destabilization of an often isolated rural world, especially in SEMCs, where the modernization oftax and land reform structures is not moving fast enough to cope with transformations in farming issues, and where the planned liberalization of international agricultural exchange risks bringing them up against insurmountable difficulties;
  • Climate change, which is starting to weigh down on an already fragile balance and threaten rare resources like water and arable land;
  • Non-sustainable rise of transport dominated byroad, which is contributing to diluting urbanization, scattering territories, weakening the benefits of urban density and increasing CO2 emissions;
  • Rising competition for tourism in the world, which the Mediterranean struggles to respond to by being too concentrated on the coastline, not fully developing its cultural, inland and rural heritage, arbitrating badly on the use of water, and insufficiently developing one of its main sectors of activity and employment; 
  • Sub-optimal international logistics, resulting inslow modernization of ports, insufficient developmentof intermodal transportation, and a lack of modern, sustainable infrastructures, or put simply, difficulties in making the most of Euro-Mediterranean proximity;
  • Lack of local activities in territories disrupted bya modernization in which they play little part, meaning that they cannot play a production factor rolelike, for example, agricultural territories with Appellations d’Origine Protégée (designation of origin labels), the top innovators like Silicon Valley and Italy’s industrial districts.

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EuroMed-2030. Collection of individual contributions of the experts PDF Print
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European Commission, 2011

The Mediterranean as cradle of different cultures, which have been living on its shores andshare a long and rich history, has been a source of friendships and cooperation as well astensions and misunderstandings. In the times of rapid scientific and technological progress,constantly growing demand for job creation and a heated debate on immigration, it istherefore in the years to come even more important to maintain, foster and upgrade the sespecial ties that exist between the peoples of both shores of the Mediterranean Sea.

In this view, the expert group "EuroMed-2030" was established in January 2010, to assessthe trends, tensions and scenarios for the Mediterranean area by 2030. Such initiative wasrealised under the European Commission's Directorate General for Research and its WorkProgramme 2009 for Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities (SSH), which includes theheading on "Long term challenges for the Mediterranean area". This forward lookingexercise was performed in close cooperation with the Commission Bureau of Europeanpolicy Advisers (BEPA).

The group of experts has reviewed and built on existing studies recently carried out relating to main changes and challenges that Mediterranean area will have to face in the next 20 years. The experts were looking at macro-economic projections (demographic, GDP growth, international trade) for the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, establishing interdependence between the EU and these countries in economic, social and technological terms, exploring medium term scenarios (2030) for an efficient implementation of future Euro-Mediterranean policies and addressing several policy issues including the Euro-Mediterranean free trade area, migration, energy, transport, environment, water, agriculture, climate change, technology transfer, marine and maritime issues as well ascultural issues including conflicts, religions and gender.

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Urbanisation in the Mediterranean Region. From 1950 - 1995 PDF Print
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Sophia Antipolis, Blue Plan, 2001

  • The Géopolis data bank makes it possible to establish a panorama of past and present urbanisation in the Mediterranean countries and in their coastal regions. Comparisons between countries and regions are made possible by making data uniform and harmonised. The 45 years studied are sufficient to make it possible to highlight the major trends of the phenomenon and its points of inflection.
  • This time period is typified in the South and East by a strong growth in the population as a whole and by an even greater growth in the urban population. In the North growth is much weaker, even to the point of becoming negative towards theend of the period. On the cusp between the 80s and 90s a shift in the relative total and urban population weight was observed from the North to the South and East of the Basin. In the long-term the permanence of the Mediterranean Basin resides in thecity, the initial forms of which appeared in the Near East and which is now undergoing mutations of a quantitative and qualitative order. The phenomenon is being followed in the permanence of the dense network of small cities and in the present transformation of the large cities into metropolises.
  • The Mediterranean coastal regions of the rim countries are twice as densely populated as the countries as a whole. They are also more urbanised and are typified by very sharp contrasts in terms of population, urbanisation and relief, the latter more or less explaining this. Among the growth factors of the urban phenomenon, the following have been identified: the crises occurring during this period, demographic growth in itself, a certain heliotropism, rural depopulation (the major cause of urbanisation in certain countries and which is worth better measuringand analysing) and finally the major trend of tourism development, itself the origin of various forms of urbanisation. And lastly, four forms of urbanisation have been identified in the immediate vicinity of coastlines, forms that are found in all Mediterranean coastal regions.
  • Insofar as the city is already and will in all probability be (cf. Courbage and Attané), the environment in which lives and will live the majority of Mediterranean inhabitants, it is advisable to include it in a continuing programme of observation and analysis so as to better understand the mechanisms of evolution as well as the demands in terms of the standards of living, economic development and the protection of natural resources.

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Mediterranean agriculture: toward adaptation to climate change PDF Print
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Blue Plan Notes, 2007

The Mediterranean basin is one of the most vulnerable regions to the foreseenimpacts of climate change. Agriculture will be one of the most seriouslyaffected economic sectors, while the countries of the Southern and Easternrims of the Mediterranean are likely to be the most severely hit. On locallevel, the capacity for resilience of the environment and populations seemsto be the keyword of the medium-term adaptive solutions. On regional level,increasing food dependence and disintegration of agricultural societies andeconomies are two challenges which call for a further strengthening ofMediterranean cooperation around the agricultural issue.

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The Mediterranean has to take up three major challenges to ensure sustainable management of its endangered water resources PDF Print
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Blue Plan Notes, 2007

In the Mediterranean riparian countries, water resources are limited and unevenly distributed. The countries of the Southern rim receive a mere 10 % of the total rainfall. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in matter of access to drinking water and sanitation have not been achieved yet, since twenty (20) million and forty seven (47) million Mediterranean people still do not have access to drinking water andto sanitation, respectively, especially in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. Water use outputs are-in spite of some encouraging results-far from being satisfactory; conveyance losses, leakages and wastage are estimated as about 40 % ofthe total water demand.

In view of demographic growth, climate change, and economic and social changes, water demand is set to inevitably increase and the risk of water shortage can no longer be discarded. The present situation is already quite tense, and it absolutely calls for a more sparing, more sustainable and more equitable water management inorder to address the three major challenges with which the Mediterranean countries will henceforth be faced: to sustainably manage the limited water resources, ensure access to drinking water and sanitation by populations that are not yet serviced, and instil water-saving behaviour among the users. There is no doubt that the future Mediterranean Water Strategy, developed within the framework of the Union for theMediterranean will contribute towards taking up these challenges.

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Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean PDF Print
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Plan Bleu, 2008

The conclusions drawn by climate specialists converge, however, on several points of general consensus: 

  • Temperature increases in the Mediterranean are likely to be above 2°C and, because of the ecological and socioeconomic characteristics of the areas, the impact will be more marked than in many other regions of the world; The Mediterranean has thus been qualified as the « hot spot for climate change» (Giorgi, 2007). 
  • A general decrease in average rainfall is expected throughout the Mediterranean basin. 
  • The most vulnerable areas of the Mediterranean are the North African ones bordering on the desert areas, the major deltas the coastal zones as well as socially vulnerable areas and those with rapid demographic growth (southern and eastern banks, dense towns and suburbs) (IPCC AR4, 2007). 

The impacts with major direct physical consequences for human activity:

  • The water issue, already central to sustainable development concerns in the Mediterranean (particularly to the South) because it is so scarce, will be a key factor through which the effects of climate change on human activity are expected to spread.  
  • Agricultural and fishing yields are expected to drop (as a result of the accumulated conditions related to temperature, rainfall, the state of the soil and the behaviour of animal and plant species). In Morocco, for example, the Cropwat model (FAO, 2001) applied to winter cereal crops under 3rd IPCC report scenarios show yield decreases by 2020 in the order of 10% for a normal year and 50% for a dry one and a 30% drop in national production. In a drier, hotter climate, crops will require more water.
  • Tourism: the climate is an essential component in the choice of tourist destination. If heat-waves and summer temperatures increase, creating problems with water resources, the Mediterranean regions could end up becoming less attractive than more northern climes. Some estimates suggest that 1°C of warming by 2050 could drive tourist numbers on the southern shores down by 10%.
  • The coastal zones: Greater exposure of infrastructure to wave action and coastal storms could be cited as one of the most serious effects. The same problems will be faced by port installations, lagoon areas, and delta. The costliest effects for infrastructure will be the ones related to extreme, intense but short-lived events.  
  • Energy: the energy production sector is the industrial activity most physically affected by the effects of climate change. One consequence of increased hydric stress coupled with the increased frequency of extreme climatic events would be a drop in hydro-electric potential and the cooling potential of thermal plants (reduced yield). The probable increase in the number of extreme events would entail re-scaling or modification (e.g.: dams designed for much higher peak flows than is currently the case …).

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Urban sprawl in Europe. Portugal and Spain: threats to the coasts of Europe PDF Print
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European Environment Agency, 2006

Portugal has experienced some of the most rapid increases in urban development in the EU, focused around major cities and the coast. Portugal's urban development is concentrated around the two metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto, along the coastline from Lisbon/Setubal to Porto/Viana do Castelo, and more recently along the Algarve coast. In 2000, 50 % of continental Portugal's urban areas were located within 13 km of the coastline, an area which accounts for only 13 % of the total land area. Given the persistently high urban pressures along the coastline, these zones are subject to special development and legal measures. 

In Spain, economic growth and tourism has resulted in an increased number of households and second homes particularly along the Mediterranean coast. Illustrative of this phenomenon are the Costa del Sol and Costa Brava which developed significantly during the 1950s and 1960s due to the demand for high quality holidays. This led to the combined development of accommodation, infrastructure and leisure facilities, such as golf courses and marinas. This development is still very intensive today.

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Population Levels, Trends and Policies in the Arab Region: Challenges and Opportunities PDF Print
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Barry Mirkin, 2010

Despite distinct differences between the countries of the Arab Region, there are also many common challenges faced by the countries: expanding populations, a growing youth bulge and high youth unemployment, rapid urbanization and crowding in cities, large flows of immigrants, and shortages of arable land, food and water. Demographic pressures will continue to constitute a core development problem and will continue to have substantial environmental, economic and political consequences for the Region. 

The challenge of job creation will need to take into account the millions of new entrants to the labour market as both the working age population and the labour force participation rates, especially for women, will continue to expand. High levels of unemployment will persist even though international migration has provided some relief in certain countries. Consequently, if more opportunities to work abroad are available, the potential for continued emigration will be high. However, in the longer term, emigration might decrease following the decline in the numbers of young people attaining working age in several countries after 2025, although this obviously depends on future economic growth. This can be viewed as an opportunity if education and training programmes are combined with economic policies that promote employment generation, while taking into account the integration in the global economy. In GCC countries, increased labour immigration has coexisted with rising unemployment among national workers, especially university graduates. The segmentation of labour markets, with nationals largely employed in the public sector and migrant workers in the private sector, indicates that, in the present situation, labour migration is not a significant cause for the unemployment of nationals in countries of destination.

Religion, tradition and culture play important roles in the social, economic and political life of the Arab Region. While providing stability and other benefits, they also pose challenges to the changes needed to address various critical developmental issues, including women’s empowerment, the quality of health care services in areas such as reproductive health, and the prevention of HIV/AIDS. Accordingly, effective programming and policy debates on issues such as high levels of maternal morbidity and mortality require culturally sensitive approaches and measures to address these issues. 

Despite the wide array of measures Governments have used to shape internal migration and urban growth, policies have generally failed to meet their stated objectives of reducing or slowing urban growth. A more realistic approach would entail focusing on the consequences of population distribution and urbanization and taking measures to adapt to them. Management of urbanization and planning of urban settlements are essential to improve lives and better livelihoods in cities and to limit the adverse impact of large concentrations of people on the natural environment. In general, natural increase has accounted for over half of the population growth in urban areas. Thus, policies to reduce fertility are likely to go a long way in limiting urban and city growth.

Adopting a population policy is only the initial step in ensuring the achievement of population and development objectives. Other essential elements include the implementation of appropriate programmes, sufficient political commitment and adequate financial resources. Respect for cultural values, partnerships with nongovernmental organizations, civil society, the business community and international donors, good governance and the maintenance of peace and security are also crucial. Lastly, a process to evaluate population policies on a regular basis is also important and a vital step.

The Arab Region has experienced war and conflict during the last 60 years. Some of these conflicts have been resolved, but others remain on-going. Social unrest, ethnic conflict and war in the Region, as well as political tensions in neighboring regions, are seriously hampering development efforts, including the implementation of population policies. While some countries enjoy stable growth and development, others face complex emergency, conflict and security situations, requiring a shift from long-term development planning to more immediate emergency response and preparedness.

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Demography in the Mediterranean Region. Situation and projection PDF Print
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Isabelle Attané et Youssef Courbage, 2004

Plan Bleu

Very briefly summarized, the key findings of the detailed studies in this report show:

  1.  A significant slowdown in what is still a fairly high annual rate of population growth in the south and east of the region (i.e., from Morocco to Turkey), chiefly due to a much faster than predicted fertility decline; 
  2. A levelling-off in the north (from Spain to Greece) where some countries will even experience a slight population loss; 
  3. Aocieties are ageing region-wide, but the older population is growing faster in the southern- than northern-rim countries; 
  4. A labour shortage in the north from 2010 (which may have to be met from immigration), and a persistent heavily surplus labour supply in the southern-rim countries, but with net entries into the labour force starting to decrease sharply from 2015; 
  5. The north’s urbanization rate will level off, adding only 250 000 or so urban dwellers a year, compared to very high average annual growth (over 2%) in the south, swelling the urban population by an extra 4 million or so a year; 
  6. Finally, the population growth rate in the Mediterranean coastal regions between 2000 and 2025 will be half that of the previous three decades, keeping the all-region degree of “Mediterraneanism” more or less unchanged, but to differing degrees in each country; in absolute terms, the coastal urban population will remain near-stationary in the north but will increase in the south by some 30 million over 25 years.

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Emerging demographic Patterns across the Mediterranean and their Implications for Migration through 2030 PDF Print
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Philippe Fargues, 2008

The Middle East and Northen Africa (MENA) and Europe appear to be an ideal demographic match: the former has a large supply of young, active workers, and the latter has a shortage of the youthful, skilled or unskilled labor it needs to sustain its economic competitivness. MENA is the source of 20 million first-generation migrants, half of them now living in another MENA country and most of the rest in Europe. The region also hosts around the same number within its borders. In addition, the size of MENA's working-age population will continue to rise sharply in the next two decades while the corresponding segment of the population in Europe will soon start to decline. 

The sizeable labor shortages that will affect Europe could be mitigated by migration from the MENA region, whose population is excpetionally young and mobile, more educated, and less fettered by family responsabilities than preceding generations. However, while we can forecast future changes in population size with relative accuracy, it is a much greater challenge to prredict the conditions under which migration will occur.

Four tiggers could lead to emigration from MENA. First, MENA's "youth bulge" might boost domestic economic growht since most MENA countries have a large enough working-age population to support the nonworking, older population. Second, young workers, particulary the well-educated, face poor employment conditions at home in part due to failed economic policies. Third, population density is growing to untenable levels in several MENA countries, and pressure on freshwater reserves will exacerbate this problem. Finally, unresolved conflicts may countinue to cause migration within and from the region.

MENA's economic and demographic circumstances, combined with its location, make it a promising source of flows to Europe, particulary circular-migration flows that are temporary and comanaged. But the level of migration from MENA to Europe will depend on how these factors combine with social and economic development in the region.

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Tourism and quality agro-food products: an opportunity for the Spanish countryside. The Priorat Case Study PDF Print
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Xosé A. Armesto López and Belén Gómez Martín, 2005

In recent years, new forms of tourism have clearly emerged in certain geographical and market areas that had previously been overlooked by tourist agents and, therefore, by consumers. At the same time, the Spanish countryside has eagerly sought to assert the value of its products through the protection offered by legislation that establishes a direct relationship between quality and the geographical origin of products. The result of these intertwined processes has been feedback between two productive sectors, the primary and the tertiary joining forces in order to take up a strong position in a market where tradition plays a key role. The links developed between the production of quality agro-livestock products and these new forms of tourism have led to the appearance of a gastronomy which both recovers traditional methods and is able to offer innovative proposals on the basis of quality products. The two issues discussed in this paper quality production and tourism, therefore serve as tools which, through gastronomy or other sales channels, contribute to the rural development of numerous regions and localities that seek to participate in patterns of consumption increasingly linked to urban environments. In the Priorat region the improvement of the principal economic and social indicators and ofthe opinion of the agents involved show how the existence of a trademark and agricultural promotion become an important local development tool which transcends the production area. The change in relative employment figures and their link with the wine sector, together with the area defined by the Denomination of Origin and the number of related companiesare clear indicators of this fact. In the same way, statistics from the tourist phenomenon show how this has evolved in parallel to reinforce the Denomination of Origin; currently, there are numerous business initiatives in the region that link these two sectors. In sum, quality agro-food products and all aspects related to them are the driving force behind a number of rural development projects implemented in recent years in many areas that had previously been considered marginal froman economic point of view. These projects are injecting new life into these regions, not only economically but also by strengthening them socially.

The following questions appear which are totally or partially linked to the success of the wine DO of Priorat:

  • The creation of new work opportunities foryoung people in the region.
  • Increases in family incomes.
  • Attraction of foreign investment.
  • Promotion of the territory abroad.
  • Attracting tourists.
  • Recovering popular culture.
  • The promotion of the unique products andgastronomy of the region.
  • Increase in the prices of land and housing.
  • Putting land that had been abandoned undercultivation.
  • Creating new regions similar to this one.

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Gran Scala. City of Leisure in Los Monegros (Aragon) PDF Print
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International Leisure Development

Gran Scala will be a leisure city in the heart of Spain that will be a historical journey thru Time, Civilization & Cultures.

Since the conception of this project, the idea which has been the central theme of this project was the creation of “a destination city of leisure for all ages”. It will consist of 32 hotel-casinos, five (5) major theme parks, a conference center, several other hotels, hundreds of retail shops, restaurants, a golf course, a horse race track, an opera, museums, and residential development. Gran Scala is a grand scale project of International Leisure Development (ILD).

This project will be located in Spain and more precisely in the desert of Los Monegros, an hour away by car from Zaragoza, the capital of the autonomous region of Aragon. Aragon occupies a strategic place in Europe in-between 2 zones of high economic development: the Atlantic and the Mediterranean regions. Aragon is a central place of communication that is constantly being renewed due to the intensification of the exchanges in the country. Situated half way between Madrid and Barcelona, Zaragoza is the 6th largest city in Spain.

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Modern Agriculture, Sustainable Innovation and Cooperative Banks: The Development of Almería (1963-2010) PDF Print
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Cynthia Giagnocavo, David Uclés Aguilera and Luis Fernández-Revuelta Pérez, 2010

Universidad de Almería

The province of Almería, in southern Spain, is known within Europe as an example of smallholding rapid development due to the expansion of intensive agriculture (mainly greenhouses). In 1955 in terms of provincial GDP per capita it ranked last within Spain; its drought-ridden landscape devoid of infrastructure and its undernourished population holding little promise for economic growth. Today however, it is ranked within the top third of provinces, with wealth creation widely spread throughout its population. The average land holding, still, of an agricultural enterprise is 1.5 hectares, most being families or SMEs who join agricultural cooperatives.

The development of what is locally referred to as the “miracle” of Almería and the resulting “Almería model” cannot be explained or understood without investigating the active implication of both the local cooperative bank and the cooperative movement of the farmers. Financial needs of intensive agriculture of the 1960s and the current modern sustainable agriculture sector were/are up to 10 times higher than that of traditional agriculture. In light of this, the need for a specific institution to service such financial requirements arose. Thus, as the nascent rural development took root in Almería, a new bank was created under the umbrella of the Spanish financial cooperative law to focus on rural needs: Caja Rural de Almería (today, Cajamar). It fulfilled a broad and central role, not only in terms of economic development but also in the creation of a “civil society” in a population decimated by the policies of the Franco regime that otherwise had no access to capital. As the sector has modernized and matured into a Local Production System, the cooperative bank continues to finance social programs and agricultural innovation in terms of bio-control, food safety, sustainable environmental practices, etc. through its own technical research centre and socioeconomic studies institute. Management and technical training courses are focused on transforming the “peasant” farmer into an agricultural entrepreneur.

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Marina d'Or: Holiday Resort PDF Print
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Lidia Beltrán and Josep Roca, 2010

In 1983, the company Marina d'Or constitutes in Spain, developing their activity in the development sector real estate, construction and tourism. His main reference to date has centered in Oropesa del Mar and Cabanes, which owns the resort Marina d'Or - Holiday Resort. 

It is an exnovo settlement away from conventional destination in Costa del Sol; with an independent urban structure; built over tabula rasa thanks to strong business investment and the support and commitment from local government; oriented to tourism and entertainment as a consumer product. Efficient marketing and strong demand from mass tourism are the requirements to achieve them.

Location: municipalities of Oropesa and Cabanes, Spain

Density: 425,4hab/km2

Marina d’Or Programm:15.000  livings approx, 1.000 rental apartment, 1.170 hotel rooms (*** to *****).

Services: Spa, amusement parks, water parks, restaurants, shops.

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